WEBVTT

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我们前面这张图当中
In the picture ahead of us

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这里面的基础当然就完成了这一些方面
Of course, the basis of this will be completed in some aspects.

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他这因为途径比较多
He has a lot of ways.

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所以最早的时候我们不讲
So we didn't talk about it at the earliest

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他有个随身的片段的
He has a walkman

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然后所有的生活
And then all the life

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比如音乐等等都在上面可以享受到
For example, music and so on can enjoy on it.

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就是这样一个过程
It is such a process.

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所以这些都是一个相辅相成的一个过程
So these are a mutually reinforcing process.

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早起来还有点麻烦在这
Get up early and have some trouble here

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所以刚才我们描摹的场景一定是基于这三个基本原理
So the scene we just described must have been based on these three fundamental principles.

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智能终端是你身体当中的一部分
Intelligent terminals are part of your body.

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第二
Second

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你经常在这上面随身携带碎片化
You often carry pieces on it

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第三基于感知的服务
Third perception-based service

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你的位置共享一定是打开的
Your location sharing must be open.

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一定是打开的
It must be open

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然后问题就出现了
And then the problem arises

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就有同学会跟我讲说我就要做一个孤独的人
Some students will tell me that I will be a lonely person.

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然后我所有的位置都不跟他们共享
Then I don't share all my positions with them.

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我在所有的信息当中我都不让他们知道
I don't let them know of all the information I have.

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他就没办法推向我推销了
He can't push me.

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他也没有办法来暗示我
He had no way to hint at me.

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让我去到哪里消费
Where can I spend my money?

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你刚才讲的所有的场景都不存在
All the scenes you said just now don't exist.

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你们觉得那种生活可能吗
Do you think that life is possible?

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就是说我刚才讲的这些场景
That is to say, the scenes I just talked about.

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他说我手机不用
He said I didn't use my mobile phone

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手机钱包不用
Mobile phone wallet is not used.

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信用卡不用
No credit card

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支付宝我也不用
I don't need Alipay either

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我通通都不用
I don't need any

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你觉得有可能吗
Do you think it is possible?

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估计是有的
I guess so

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是有的
There is

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但他这样的人也不是他的什么消费群
But he is not his kind of consumer group.

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也不是他的消费群
It's not his consumer group.

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大多数人是很避免这样一个现象
Most people avoid such a phenomenon.

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那这样现象
So this phenomenon

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当然在这个过程当中
Of course, in the process.

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实际上所以从这个方面来讲
In fact, so in this respect

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为什么讲马云他的淘宝阿里巴巴坚持了八年
Why did ma Yun insist on his Taobao Alibaba for eight years?

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然后才会出现一个情况
Then there will be a situation.

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它实际上是在等在等这样一群群体成长起来
It is actually waiting for such a group to grow up.

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然后终于他就熬过了
And finally he got through it

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像我们讲的京东实际上现在还在亏损还在亏损
As we said, jd.com is actually still losing money and still losing money.

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他也在等这一批消费的群体完全的起来一类起来
He is also waiting for this group of consumers to come together completely.

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所以这个过程当中是比较有意思
So this process is more interesting.

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就像我们刚才在讲
Just like we were talking about

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对大多数人实际上是很难避免的
For most people, it is actually very difficult to avoid.

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而且在这个过程当中会有一个渐进的一个过程
And there will be a gradual process in the process.

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像我们会用手机
Like we can use cell phones

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在座所有人都会用微信
Everyone here can use wechat.

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所以你至少会介绍你的微信当中会已经推测广告出来
So you will at least introduce your wechat, which will have been speculation advertising.

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像我今天早上会看到有牙膏的有车的有房子的都已经看到了
As I will see this morning, toothpaste, cars, houses have been seen.

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你在用微信
You are using wechat.

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你觉得微信是免费的
You think wechat is free.

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但他已经会嵌入广告
But he's already embedded in ads

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已经接嵌入广告
The advertisement has been embedded

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所以你在会看到像一些黑车等等这样方面
So you're going to see things like black cars and so on

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实际上也是在拼痕迹
In fact, it's also a sign.

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当然这个过程当中也会产生威胁一些威胁
Of course, there will be threats in the process.

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好
Well

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这是我们刚才讲的这样一个过程
This is the process we have just talked about.

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现在在座的诸位可能会对零成本的生活知道有两个单词是很重要
Now, you may know that it is important to have two words for a zero-cost life.

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第一个商业模式发生了改变
The first business model has changed.

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叫交叉补贴商业模式
Cross-subsidy business model

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第二个数据的收集集成分析在这个过程当中会产生便利
The second data collection, integration and analysis in the process will produce convenience.

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也会产生什么
What will happen?

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财富
Wealth

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这个财富可能是支付你零成本当中的一部分
This wealth may be part of paying your zero cost.

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好
Well

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这里描绘的都是一些很好的一部分
Here are some very good parts.

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那么有没有不好的一部分
So is there a bad part

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有没有觉得不喜欢他的一部分
Do you feel that you don't like a part of him?

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实际上也会有
In fact, there will be

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像我们在讲到课堂翻转课堂的问题
Like we were talking about turning the classroom upside down

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就是线上线下融合是一个必然的一个趋势
That is, online and offline integration is an inevitable trend.

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那么在这个过程当中也会有一些令我们恐惧的问题
In the process, there will also be some problems that scare us.

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比如我们把所有的隐私在分享的过程当中会享受到很多的便利
For example, we share all the privacy in the process will enjoy a lot of convenience.

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那会产生新的挑战
That will create new challenges.

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举举我们老师的行业来讲
Take our teacher's profession for example.

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像我们的前辈
Like our predecessors

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他们当时的考核的一个很重要的指标
A very important indicator of their assessment at that time.

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就我的老师
Just my teacher

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他就是要写板书了
He is just going to write a book on the board.

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从头到尾
From beginning to end

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然后板书非常的漂亮
Then the board book is very beautiful.

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但我们现在会不需要这样的感受
But we don't need that feeling now.

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我们更重要的是谁
Who are we more important?

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PPT会做的会比较好
The PowerPoint can do better.

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这是一个技能的挑战
This is a skill challenge.

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你在享受它的概念的时候
When you are enjoying its concept

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你可能会技能也会有一个很重要的挑战
You may have skills and there will be a very important challenge.

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就是说过去的有些技能已经会被淘汰掉淘汰掉
In other words, some of the skills of the past will be eliminated.

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当然还有在这个过程当中
And, of course, in the process.

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你会丧失一点不确定性所带来的美感
You lose the beauty of uncertainty

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比如我们过去讲蓦然回首他人却在灯火阑珊处
For example, we used to look back on others in the light

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这是一种惊喜
It's a surprise.

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一种期待一种浪漫的一种感觉
A feeling of anticipation and romance.

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但现在就正准备你在散步的时候
But now is the time to prepare for your walk.

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忽然会有人告诉你
Suddenly someone will tell you.

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你的头转向45度角
Your head, steering, is 45 degrees.

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再看到200米处会有一个你喜欢的类型的女孩子在那站着
There will be a girl of your type standing there at 200 meters.

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当然你回过头果然看见是这样一个情况
Of course, you look back and see that this is the case.

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然后你会跟他讲一个段子说我今天没有带钱
Then you will tell him a joke that I have no money with me today.

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我你能不能把你的微信给我
Can you give me your wechat?

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我从支付宝转20块钱给你
I will transfer 20 yuan from Alipay to you.

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先借我二块钱
Lend me two yuan first.

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然后你把他微信泡到
Then you soak him in wechat.

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然后你觉得你们俩就会成为一个很好的一个过程
Then you think you two will be a good process.

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但这个过程你会不会觉得丧失了一点
But do you feel a little lost in the process?

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你所期待的这种神秘感他也会丧失掉
He will lose the mystery you expect.

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因为有人已经根据你的痕迹巴拉巴拉
Because someone has based your trace, Barabara.

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已经还有这种刷脸的摄像等等这些都会告诉你
There are already these facelift cameras and so on and all that will tell you

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很多人也不喜欢这样一种场景
Many people do not like such a scene.

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他还是觉得我这样走一走
He still thinks I'll walk like this.

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然后蓦然回首
And then look back

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她人却在灯火阑珊出
But she was shining with lights

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这种感觉是如此的美妙
This feeling is so wonderful.

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这是第二种担心
This is the second worry.

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还有第三种实际上也觉得很不舒服
And the third is actually very uncomfortable.

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比如像我们刚才在讲
Like we were talking about

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现在我们的身份证还是一张卡片
Now our ID card is still a card.

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然后将来会有张二维码
Then there will be a QR code in the future.

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然后发现你的二维码已经被切入进来
Then I found out that your QR code had been cut in

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然后这个声音已经变成另外一个声音
Then this voice has become another voice.

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然后你无法登机
Then you can't board the plane.

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怎么办
What to do

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当然最可怕的事情是像星球大战电影最后的过程当中突然停电了
Of course, the most terrible thing is like the star wars movie in the final process of a sudden power failure.

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然后什么都没有了
And then there's nothing

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结果后来那天在跟我们一个同事在讲
Later that day, I was talking to one of our colleagues.

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我说天看样是最重要的
I said, "look at the sky is the most important thing."

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最重要的
Most important

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当然还有其他的一些方面
There are other aspects, of course.

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就这些可能也会带来新的一些挑战
These may also bring new challenges.

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这些问题估计不是我们来回答了
We may not answer these questions.

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一定是在座的诸位来回答在座诸位来回答
It must be all of you who are here to answer.

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所以它会带来一些挑战
So it brings some challenges

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那么这个挑战对我们老师来讲
So this challenge is for our teacher.

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表现在教育过程当中
In the course of education

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就是无边界的校园会有微课磨课翻转课堂等等这样一些过程都会有
That is, there will be no boundary of the campus micro-lessons, turn the classroom, and so on, some of the process will have.

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不好在
Not good

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当然这是我们内心的窃喜
Of course, this is our inner joy.

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我们现在发现所有免费的课
We now find all the free classes.

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所有免费的课
All free classes

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课程
Course

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包括哈佛开出来一些免费的课
Including some free classes at Harvard

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最早注册的时候可能1万多人
There may be more than 10, 000 people at the earliest time of registration.

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最后毕业的可能就一两个人
There may be only one or two people who graduate in the end.

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原因在哪里
What is the reason?

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原因可能就在于免费
The reason may be free.

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因为没有成本就没有压力
Because there is no cost, there is no pressure.

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就没有转换没有动力
There is no conversion, no power.

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所以这也可能是零成本生活当中会遭遇到人性当中的一个主导
Therefore, this may also be the cost of living, will encounter a leading human nature.

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所以可能还是需要一些成本
So there may be some cost.

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当然还有在这个过程当中
And, of course, in the process.

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我们分析可能是人的一个惰性
Our analysis may be a human inertia.

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人的一些惰性
Some human inertia

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所以老师还会存在
So the teacher will still exist.

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那天我们开玩笑在讲
We were joking the other day

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看样子智慧教育只能出现一个没有边界的校园
It seems that wisdom education can only appear in a campus without boundaries.

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不会出现没有教师的校园
There will be no campus without teachers

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所以老师的工作是没问题的
So the teacher's work is all right.

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没问题了
No problem

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好
Well

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这是我们讲它可能会出现免费
This is what we say it may appear free.

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也有可能会带来另外一种状况
There may also be another situation.

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就没有压力
There is no pressure

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没有压力
No pressure

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那么还会出现什么
So what else will happen?

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我们讲到智慧家庭当中
We talk about intelligent families

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刚才我们讲了智慧旅游
Just now we talked about intelligent tourism.

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讲了智慧教育
Talking about wisdom education

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我们现在来看看智慧生活当中最重要的一部分智慧家庭智慧家庭
Let us now look at the most important part of the intelligent life, the intelligent family, the intelligent family.

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那么智慧家庭在很长的一段时间都是被誉为豪宅
So intelligent family in a very long period of time are known as luxury.

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像比尔盖茨这种
Like bill gates

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还有像我们看爸爸去哪里了
And like we saw where dad went

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叫林什么电影演员
What's the name of Lin?

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我现在想不起来
I can't remember now.

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他在台北的房子好像就是这样
His house in Taipei seems to be like this.

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这里所描写的场景就是这样一种情况
The scene described here is such a situation.

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说它里面会有一个便携式的触摸屏
Said it would have a portable touch screen

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可以掌控它所有的环境
Can control all of its environment.

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比如它的电视机冰箱空调
For example, its TV, refrigerator, air conditioning.

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包括他的沙发
Including his sofa

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包括它里面的火灾等等这样一些方面
Including the fire inside it and so on

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然后在这个过程当中
And then in the process

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它是可以通过无线来遥控
It can be remotely controlled by wireless

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无线来遥控
Wireless remote control

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所以这是智慧家庭当中的一个很典型的一个场景
So this is a very typical scene in the intelligent family.

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通常国外的智慧家庭的产品就像这样子一个类似的一种状况
Usually, foreign intelligent family products are like this, a similar situation.

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大家可能会观察到
You might see

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就是他这里面会有一个差错
There will be a mistake in it.

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一个插座
A socket

196
00:09:21.720 --> 00:09:24.180
然后会有一个触摸屏这样一个情况
Then there will be a touch screen such a situation.

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未来的房子像我们现在的房子
The house of the future is like our house of the present.

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因为还没有这样改装
Because it hasn't been modified like this

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未来的房地产它都会
The future of real estate, it will.

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就你们这帮小朋友结婚住进去的时候
When you kids got married and lived in

201
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你买到的房子都是这样
All the houses you buy are like this.

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已经改装过
Have been modified

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就你只要用手机就可以去遥控它
As long as you use the mobile phone, you can remote control it.

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那就要控它
Then control it

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上海也有我们当时做CIOC可持续发展研究中心的课题的时候
Shanghai also has a time when we were doing the cioc research center for sustainable development.

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就做了智慧家庭的课题
I did the project of the intelligent family.

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他还有一个家连国际也在做这样一个过程
He also has a family and even international to do such a process.

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它的套装也跟他类似
Its suit is similar to his.

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一旦类似
Once similar

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那么智慧家庭它在使用过程当中有很多很传说的这种神奇就比较有趣
So the intelligent family, in the process of its use, there are many very legendary, this kind of magic is more interesting.

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的地方
Place

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比如说像吴晓波当时描写过一个场景
For example, Wu Xiaobo described a scene at that time.

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就是说中国可能会出现中产阶级
That is to say, China may have a middle class.

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已经出现了到日本去抢日本生产的马桶盖电饭锅
Has appeared in Japan to rob the Japanese production of the toilet cover electric rice cooker.

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还有很多其他的一些东西
There are many other things.

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其中就有人讲日本的电饭锅可能几千块钱
Some of them say that the electric rice cooker in Japan may cost thousands of yuan.

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它的差别在哪里
What's the difference?

218
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其实它的差别可能也会有大米的感觉什么
In fact, its difference may also have the feeling of rice, what?

219
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可能它最重要就是可以遥控
Perhaps the most important thing is that it can be remotely controlled.

220
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就可以遥控
It can be remotely controlled

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然后当时我们在其他的一个
And then we were in the other one

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因为我们这里来培训的官员很多
Because we have a lot of officials here to train.

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然后有一个老师有个领导就会问我说
Then a teacher, a leader, would ask me,

224
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这遥控那个米是怎么放进去的
How did the remote control put the meter in?

225
00:10:44.290 --> 00:10:46.100
我说米是提前要放好的
I said the rice should be set in advance.

226
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水也要提前要放好
Water should also be put in advance.

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只是可以遥控它烧一烧
It's just a remote control.

228
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这是可以
This is OK

229
00:10:51.000 --> 00:10:52.750
田螺姑娘还没有出现
Viviparidae has not appeared yet.

230
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所以这是零成本
So this is zero cost

231
00:10:53.810 --> 00:10:55.590
生活当中还要再做一个
I have to do one more in my life.

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就线上和线下还是要结合
On and off the line or to combine.

233
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还是要结合的
It still needs to be combined.

234
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然后在这个过程当中
And then in the process

235
00:11:00.940 --> 00:11:03.700
它比较神奇的地方在哪里呢
Where is the more magical place?

236
00:11:04.050 --> 00:11:06.960
对上海进入老龄化社会当中
Shanghai into an aging society

237
00:11:07.510 --> 00:11:10.510
这点可能还是比较需要的
This may be more necessary.

238
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我们现在会知道有些老年人他在家里
We will know some old people now that he is at home.

239
00:11:14.540 --> 00:11:15.910
然后出现一些问题
Then there were some problems

240
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外面可能是不知道
It may not be known outside.

241
00:11:17.880 --> 00:11:20.050
然后出现一些人伦的悲剧
And then there are some human tragedies.

242
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这个我觉得倒是科技带来的一种状况
This, I think, is a situation brought about by technology.

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一种状况
A condition

244
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比如假设这是一张床
Suppose, for example, that this is a bed.

245
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那么这底下有一张芯片
So there's a chip underneath

246
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然后芯片跟你的手机是连在一起的
Then the chip is connected to your mobile phone.

247
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张床始终的它的位置重量没有发生变化
The bed is always the same its position weight has not changed.

248
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如果有两三天超过72小时
If there are two or three days over 72 hours.

249
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你这个手机是没有变化的
There is no change in your mobile phone.

250
00:11:42.820 --> 00:11:44.510
这提醒可能会有什么
What may this remind you of?

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问题
Problem

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体型很有问题
Body shape is very problematic

253
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当然还有在这个过程当中
And, of course, in the process.

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你可以帮老年人遥控他的空调温度等等
You can help the elderly remote control his air conditioning temperature and so on.

255
00:11:52.980 --> 00:11:53.820
这些都可以
These are all fine

256
00:11:53.820 --> 00:11:58.500
当然还有在一些厕所厨房放一些摄像头
And, of course, there are some cameras in some toilets, in the kitchen.

257
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如果始终没有放些老年人的声音
If there's no older voice at all

258
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这也会提醒他出现了一种状态
It will also remind him of a state of affairs.

259
00:12:04.120 --> 00:12:08.290
所以还有包括最近在微信上传得很神奇的一个段子
So there is also a paragraph that has been passed on wechat recently.

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就是说美国一个小孩发明了一双袜子
That is to say, a child in the United States invented a pair of socks.

261
00:12:11.830 --> 00:12:13.310
这个袜子穿上去以后
When this sock is put on

262
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可以知道患有海资老年痴呆症的这样一个外婆或者外公走到哪里去
You can know where a grandmother or grandfather who has Alzheimer's disease goes.

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实际上原理是一样的
In fact, the principle is the same.

264
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都是感知分析
It's all perception analysis

265
00:12:23.990 --> 00:12:26.370
然后在基层讲到这个地方
And then talk about this place at the grassroots level

266
00:12:26.370 --> 00:12:28.050
实际上我们在想讲
Actually, we're trying to talk about

267
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就这里面现在所有的成本几乎是免费的
All the costs are now almost free of charge.

268
00:12:34.350 --> 00:12:35.740
谁来付这个钱
Who will pay for this?

269
00:12:36.220 --> 00:12:37.330
房地产商
Real estate business

270
00:12:37.590 --> 00:12:38.590
房地产商
Real estate business

271
00:12:38.870 --> 00:12:41.710
几乎你现在未来将来买到的房子
Almost all the houses you will buy in the future.

272
00:12:41.710 --> 00:12:42.610
像万科
Like Vanke

273
00:12:42.610 --> 00:12:45.600
包括融创融侨几大房地产商
Including a few big real estate companies Rong Hong

274
00:12:45.600 --> 00:12:48.320
现在都是会跟智慧家居再联系
Now it's all about reconnecting with smart homes

275
00:12:48.390 --> 00:12:50.420
联系他这个房
Contact him in this room

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00:12:50.420 --> 00:12:53.470
他都会跟你讲买房子送智慧家庭
He will tell you to buy a house for the wise family.

277
00:12:54.170 --> 00:12:55.340
很简单的道理
A simple truth

278
00:12:55.530 --> 00:12:59.420
这个是包含在房地产的价格当中去
This is included in the price of real estate.

279
00:12:59.710 --> 00:13:03.290
然后当然这时候就会有一些更好玩的生意会出现
Then, of course, there will be some more interesting business.

280
00:13:03.290 --> 00:13:06.100
那说我不买这样的房子
Then I won't buy such a house.

281
00:13:06.100 --> 00:13:08.320
我就买这种传统的房子
I'll buy this traditional house.

282
00:13:08.460 --> 00:13:12.270
还记得董明珠格力空调的广告
Still remember Dong Mingzhu's ad for air conditioning

283
00:13:12.680 --> 00:13:15.200
可能很多人不太关心一些夏天的时候
Maybe a lot of people don't care about some summer time.

284
00:13:15.200 --> 00:13:18.130
董明珠做了一个格力的智慧空调的广告
Dong Mingzhu made a smart air conditioner ad.

285
00:13:18.130 --> 00:13:20.150
就专门放了一个小朋友说
Just let a little friend say

286
00:13:20.610 --> 00:13:21.070
妈妈
Mom

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00:13:21.070 --> 00:13:22.390
我要一种空调
I want an air conditioner

288
00:13:22.390 --> 00:13:25.230
就是我到家的时候空调已经制冷了
By the time I got home, the air conditioner had cooled down.

289
00:13:25.230 --> 00:13:26.270
已经很凉快了
It's already cool

290
00:13:26.460 --> 00:13:27.690
这样一种空调
Such an air conditioner

291
00:13:27.690 --> 00:13:29.620
然后这个叫智能空调
And this is called intelligent air conditioning

292
00:13:29.890 --> 00:13:32.160
智能空调比一般的空调要贵好多
Intelligent air conditioning is much more expensive than ordinary air conditioning.

293
00:13:32.630 --> 00:13:33.160
钱
Money

294
00:13:33.340 --> 00:13:35.000
然后当时我先生就在讲
And then my husband was talking

295
00:13:35.130 --> 00:13:36.910
说这贵这么多钱
Say it's so expensive.

296
00:13:36.910 --> 00:13:39.070
我宁肯我自己回家以后开开
I'd rather drive when I get home by myself.

297
00:13:39.070 --> 00:13:40.150
他就热个一二十分钟
He'll be hot for a minute or twenty.

298
00:13:40.150 --> 00:13:41.690
313喝点水就OK了
Just drink some water.

299
00:13:42.110 --> 00:13:44.130
然后我就说很可惜
Then I said it was a pity

300
00:13:44.130 --> 00:13:47.590
再过几年以后你喜欢的空调没有了
In a few years, your favorite air conditioner is gone.

301
00:13:47.830 --> 00:13:48.740
他说为什么
He said why

302
00:13:48.740 --> 00:13:51.260
我说你喜欢空调一直生产
I said you like the air conditioner always produced

303
00:13:51.260 --> 00:13:52.710
然后像碰到您这样的人
And then someone like you

304
00:13:52.710 --> 00:13:53.990
几十年都不换空调
Not changing the air conditioner for decades

305
00:13:53.990 --> 00:13:55.690
然后他倒闭了
Then he went out of business

306
00:13:55.790 --> 00:13:59.290
然后你不喜欢的空调厂一直存在着
And then the air conditioning plant that you don't like has been there

307
00:13:59.290 --> 00:14:01.270
然后你虽然卖得很贵
Then you sell it very expensive

308
00:14:01.560 --> 00:14:05.040
它上面讲他根本都没说爷爷或者爸爸
It says he didn't even say grandpa or dad

309
00:14:05.040 --> 00:14:07.070
他没有说他是说一个儿子的声音
He didn't say he meant a son's voice.

310
00:14:07.070 --> 00:14:07.920
小朋友的声音
The voice of a child

311
00:14:08.160 --> 00:14:09.500
小朋友一旦有钱以后
Once a child has money

312
00:14:09.500 --> 00:14:11.170
他第一件事就买这个
He bought it the first thing.

313
00:14:11.170 --> 00:14:12.370
他没有钱怎么办
What if he has no money?

314
00:14:12.370 --> 00:14:15.040
分期贷款先零首付
Zero down payment for installment loans

315
00:14:15.290 --> 00:14:17.120
然后后面再付五块钱
And then pay five dollars later

316
00:14:17.120 --> 00:14:19.340
实在不行靠打游戏来赚积分
It's really hard to earn points by playing games.

317
00:14:19.340 --> 00:14:20.870
也要买空调
Also want to buy air conditioning.

318
00:14:20.870 --> 00:14:22.800
然后您老就不行了
Then you will not be able to grow old.

319
00:14:23.010 --> 00:14:25.960
然后我说未来的房子也是这样一个情况
Then I said that the future of the house is the same situation.

320
00:14:25.960 --> 00:14:27.230
说你喜欢那个房子
Say you like the house

321
00:14:27.230 --> 00:14:29.550
然后生产这种传统的房子的人
And then the people who make this traditional house

322
00:14:30.220 --> 00:14:32.740
反正情况不太妙
Anyway, the situation is not very good.

323
00:14:32.740 --> 00:14:35.570
所以这也是一种状况一种状况
So this is a situation, a situation

324
00:14:35.570 --> 00:14:39.660
就新的科技它通过嵌入到传统的模式
On the new technology, it is embedded in the traditional mode.

325
00:14:39.660 --> 00:14:42.680
似乎实现了一个零成本的生活
Seems to have achieved a zero cost of living.

326
00:14:42.680 --> 00:14:44.470
这是第三个原理
This is the third principle.

327
00:14:44.620 --> 00:14:46.080
它为什么是职业零成本
Why is it occupational zero cost?

328
00:14:46.080 --> 00:14:48.170
它嵌入到传统的什么
It's embedded in the traditional what?

329
00:14:48.320 --> 00:14:48.900
产业
Industry

330
00:14:48.900 --> 00:14:53.390
所谓的互联网加互联网加加到哪里
What is the so-called Internet plus Internet plus?

331
00:14:53.390 --> 00:14:57.440
互联网是免费的加的要付钱的
The Internet is free plus it has to be paid

332
00:14:58.200 --> 00:15:00.750
不过早起的鸟儿有虫吃
But the early bird catches the worm.

333
00:15:00.750 --> 00:15:04.710
所以像我们在讲优酷黑车专车等等
So, like we're talking about Youku black cars and so on

334
00:15:04.710 --> 00:15:08.030
最早开优酷的司机还是蛮赚钱的
The first driver to drive Youku is quite profitable.

335
00:15:08.270 --> 00:15:10.110
真的是一个月能赚到一两万
It's true that you can make twenty thousand a month.

336
00:15:10.110 --> 00:15:11.550
因为他开一单送两单
Because he made a single and sent two.

337
00:15:11.550 --> 00:15:13.950
开一单送两单没有
Do you have one order for two?

338
00:15:14.110 --> 00:15:15.200
现在是没有了
There are no more now

339
00:15:15.200 --> 00:15:17.350
所以这里面又有什么原理
So what's the principle in it?

340
00:15:17.550 --> 00:15:21.550
它实际上是互联网加它一定要达到一个规模
It is actually the Internet plus it must reach a scale.

341
00:15:21.710 --> 00:15:23.740
它才能够实现盈利
It can make a profit.

342
00:15:23.740 --> 00:15:25.160
在实现规模之前
Before achieving scale

343
00:15:25.160 --> 00:15:27.730
他可能是要容忍他的什么
What could he be tolerating?

344
00:15:27.890 --> 00:15:28.800
亏本
Lose money

345
00:15:29.160 --> 00:15:32.520
所以我们前面讲的扫一扫摇一摇等等
So we talked about sweeping, shaking and so on.

346
00:15:32.520 --> 00:15:34.720
他一定要达到一定的量
He must reach a certain amount.

347
00:15:34.720 --> 00:15:35.830
一定要达到一定量
Must reach a certain amount.

348
00:15:35.830 --> 00:15:38.650
就像我们今天在讲课堂一样
Just like we're talking about class today.

349
00:15:39.450 --> 00:15:42.960
像郭德纲当时讲相声的时候讲过一段话很好玩
For example, when Guo Degang was speaking crosstalk, it was fun to say a few words.

350
00:15:43.560 --> 00:15:46.460
郭德纲最早出现的时候是挺坎坷的
Guo Degang was very rough when he first appeared.

351
00:15:46.460 --> 00:15:48.870
有很多人会认可他的过程
There are many people who will recognize his process.

352
00:15:48.870 --> 00:15:50.180
他当时讲过一个段子
He said a joke at that time.

353
00:15:50.180 --> 00:15:53.630
就是说只要有两个听众我都要讲下去
That is to say, I will go on as long as there are two listeners.

354
00:15:53.810 --> 00:15:57.060
这句话就是在经济学当中要有门槛效应
In economics, there should be a threshold effect.

355
00:15:57.060 --> 00:15:58.620
他说一个人就不行了
He said it would be impossible to be alone.

356
00:15:58.710 --> 00:16:00.670
你知道为什么一个人这个人去上厕所
Do you know why a person goes to the bathroom?

357
00:16:00.670 --> 00:16:01.920
他就没有办法去讲
He can't talk about it.

358
00:16:02.080 --> 00:16:02.580
对吧
Right

359
00:16:02.580 --> 00:16:04.360
两个人还有一个人在
Two people and one more person in

360
00:16:04.490 --> 00:16:06.850
所以这里面就包含了一个规模效应
So this involves a scale effect

361
00:16:06.850 --> 00:16:08.330
像我们教室一样
Like our classroom

362
00:16:08.330 --> 00:16:10.630
要两三个人还是能够开下去的
Two or three people can still drive.

363
00:16:10.740 --> 00:16:11.960
如果人太少
If there are too few people

364
00:16:12.170 --> 00:16:13.720
这实在是开不下去了
This is really not going to go on.

365
00:16:13.830 --> 00:16:15.720
互联网加APP也是这样
The same is true of Internet plus apps

366
00:16:15.720 --> 00:16:17.280
它的门槛不是两三个人
Its threshold is not two or three people.

367
00:16:17.280 --> 00:16:20.300
一百个就OK了他至少刷到1万个
One hundred is OK, he brushes at least ten thousand.

368
00:16:20.500 --> 00:16:23.080
所以你包子刷一张
So you brush one piece of steamed stuffed bun

369
00:16:23.080 --> 00:16:25.300
然后你两个包子再下载再刷一下
Then you can download the two steamed stuffed buns and brush them again.

370
00:16:25.300 --> 00:16:28.530
它好歹也增加一个累积两黄累计量
It also adds a cumulative amount of two yellows.

371
00:16:28.530 --> 00:16:32.640
所以这里面有另外传统经济学不能够解释的一些原理
So there are other principles that traditional economics cannot explain.

372
00:16:32.640 --> 00:16:33.760
如果感兴趣的话
If you are interested

373
00:16:33.760 --> 00:16:36.690
你可以去看一本书叫零成本社会
You can read a book called zero cost society.

374
00:16:36.690 --> 00:16:38.980
或者看虚拟的货币等等
Or virtual currency, etc.

375
00:16:38.980 --> 00:16:40.440
现在这些数据有很多了
Now there are a lot of data.

376
00:16:40.440 --> 00:16:41.050
还有很多
There are many more

377
00:16:41.050 --> 00:16:43.760
所以这里面会有一些很好玩的一些过程
So there will be some very interesting processes in it.