WEBVTT

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特别高兴在国庆节的前夜跟大家在一起
I am very happy to be with you on the eve of national day.

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今天实际上是外面在放烟火
Today is actually a fireworks display outside.

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正好房间或者是我们在这里算
Just the room or we are here to calculate.

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我专门找了这么一个主题来给大家讲
I have found such a theme to tell you.

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是我们的专业
Is our major

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我们同济大学经过这几年的研究
After years of research at Tongji university

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发现一个基本的关系
Discover a basic relationship

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那么觉得很有意思
So it's interesting

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对我们中国的所谓叫新型城镇化可以有所启示的一个很重要的内容
The so-called new urbanization in China can be a very important part of the enlightenment.

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应该说在就我寻求的我自己寻求的这些各个方面的国际上的反应
It should be said that in the context of my own search for these aspects of the international response.

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我巡查的这些资料
The information I inspected

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到今天为止都应该说这一块的发现是属于同济大学
So far, it should be said that the discovery of this piece belongs to Tongji university.

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是属于同济大学的最新的发现
Is the latest discovery belonging to Tongji university.

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我呢从全世界的城镇化的各个国家的过程给大家说起
I will tell you about the process of urbanization in every country in the world.

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实际上城镇化过程并不是说我们中国是怎么特别这件事情
In fact, the process of urbanization does not mean that we China is how special this matter.

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在发达国家整个过程中间
In the whole process of developed countries

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几乎没有一个国家能够阻碍整个的城镇化的这么一个历史性的进程
Almost no country can hinder the entire urbanization of such a historic process.

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那么我们这个小组工作的团队一直在跟踪
So the team that we work on has been following

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我们这个研究了252个国家地区以及不同的集团组织
We studied 252 countries, regions and different groups.

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都在这里面
It's all in here

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我们把各个国家全部走完以后
After we have finished all the countries.

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这里是九60年
This is ninety-six

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我出生的一开始看全世界的城镇化怎么走
When I was born, I looked at the world's urbanization.

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走到现在2012年的数字
Up to 2012 figures

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可以看到整个城镇化
You can see the whole urbanization

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这个是上面是100%
This is the top 100%.

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100%
100%

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下面是0%
Below is 0%.

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就是这个国家
This is the country

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0%的人是城市里面生活的国家是95%以上的人都在城市里生活
0% of people live in cities, and 95% live in cities.

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那么大家可以看到整个的流程
So you can see the whole process

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整个的发展的变化的过程
The whole process of development and change.

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我们可以看一看
We can have a look.

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在52个国家中间
Among 52 countries

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我们中国就在这么一条线上在走
We China are walking on such a line.

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可以看到大部分的国家早早超越了我们中国
We can see that most of the countries have surpassed our China early.

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在整个国家的现代化的层面
At the level of the modernization of the whole country

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在整个国家的城镇化的整个水平来说
At the entire level of the country's urbanization

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中国一直落后了世界很大一部分
China has always been a big part of the world behind.

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一直到了今天
Until today

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我们可以看
We can see

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我们达到了世界的一个平均的一个水平
We have reached an average level in the world.

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那么就在中间这一块
So it's in the middle

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假如同学们是20多岁的话
If the students are in their twenties.

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实际上可以看到
You can actually see

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也就是靠你们出生以后
After you were born

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这个时间段中国追上世界的水平
At this time, China is catching up with the world.

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是因为你们才会上市
It was because of you that you went public

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我们把各个组进行了聚类分析
We cluster each group.

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还要响一点吗
A little louder?

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后面同学听得见吗
Can you hear me at the back?

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这个事情
This thing

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我在建一遍可以吗
Can I build it again?

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好
Well

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后面不是可以了吗
Isn't the back okay

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可以了吗
Is that all right

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好
Well

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可以了吧
All right

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好
Well

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这样好了
That's all right

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可以了
All right

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我们把25652个分类以后
After we classified the 25652

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我们可以看到全世界进行聚类分析以后
We can see the world after clustering analysis.

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大概可以分成六组国家
It can be divided into six groups of countries.

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我一组组给大家看一下
Let me show you a group.

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到底假如你们不清楚的话
If you don't know

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你们可以一边看一边想
You can look and think

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我的家乡大概属于哪一个类型的
What kind of home is my hometown?

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假如把我们中国30个城市
If we take 30 cities in China.

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30个省市
30 provinces and cities

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自治区把它分类的话
If the autonomous region classifies it

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也是可以分成不同类型的
Can also be divided into different types.

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可以看到各个省也在走各个国家的不同的发展阶段的道路
It can be seen that the provinces are also taking different stages of development in different countries.

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大家想一想我们的我家乡在哪条线上
Let's think about which line our hometown is on.

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第一组国家
Group I countries

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二战以后都已经直接到了60%以上
After world war II, it has directly reached 60%.

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这些国家一直保持在高度上面的
These countries have been kept high.

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通过50年
Through fifty years

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不断的更加提升它的城镇化
It is constantly improving its urbanization.

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在过去的在200年到四季末之前还有很大提升
In the past, there has been a lot of improvement between 200 and the end of the fourth quarter.

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到后面的基本上保持在高水平状态
To the back basically stay at a high level.

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那么这个典型的就是中间的美国
So this is the typical middle America

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可以看到
You can see

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二战结束以后
After world war II

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这一次已经七接近70
This time, it's seven to seventy.

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然后一直保持70
And keep it up to 70

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一直在70
It's been at 70

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到了今天都在80度
It's all 80 degrees today.

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这么一组国家
Such a group of countries

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这里面包含了澳大利亚
It contains Australia.

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瑞典德国法国美国
Sweden, Germany, France, the United States.

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意大利西班牙比利时英国
Italy, Spain, Belgium, Britain.

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可以看到这些最发达的国家
You can see the most developed countries.

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早早的就把城镇化已经基本完成
Early urbanization has been basically completed.

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进入了成熟的城镇化的一个发展阶段
Entered a mature stage of urbanization.

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我们很多的同学都认为我们的可以有一天过上这样的日子
Many of our classmates think that we can live like this one day.

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但是可以清楚我们刚才这一条
But it is clear that we have just made this one

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我故意把中国的现象放出来了以后
I deliberately put the phenomenon of China after the release.

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可以看到我们为什么和他们差距那么大
We can see why we are so far behind them.

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实际上城镇化率是非常重要的一个指标
In fact, the conversion rate is a very important indicator.

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可以看到我们的整体的人民是多少
We can see how many people we are as a whole.

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在城市里面生活是和整个国家的发达水平及其相关
Living in the city is related to the level of development of the whole country.

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第二大是我们可以看到阿根廷智利为内刚
The second largest is that we can see argentina, Chile, for the interior.

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墨西哥哥伦比亚
Colombia, mexico

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内容
Content

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巴西都在咱们中国的跨太平洋的对面
Brazil is across the Pacific ocean from China.

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这是拉丁美洲国家组拉到美洲国家主在二战结束以后
This is the Latin American group that pulled to the Americas after the end of world war II.

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很少有超过60%的都是在30多到60之间
Rarely more than 60% are between 30 and 60.

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然后过了一个非常快速的城镇化过程
And then a very rapid urbanization process.

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一直到了八九十年代
Until the '80s and' 90s

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这个时候整个拉美高歌猛进的时候
This is when the whole of Latin America is singing

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大家知道阿根廷曾经在世界上最富裕的十个国家俱乐部中间
As you know, argentina was once among the ten richest country clubs in the world.

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曾经是世界上最富裕的十个国家之一
Once one of the ten richest countries in the world.

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非常也就在高歌猛进的时候
Very, very early in the song

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所以到了后面
So in the back

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大家会唱
Everyone can sing

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不要为我哭泣
Don't cry for me.

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东快疯
East fast mad

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一下子人已经到了85%以上的阿根廷还要高
All of a sudden, people have reached more than 85%, argentina is still high.

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85以上
Above 85

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以后突然之间发现人进城了
Then suddenly someone came into town.

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但是到城市里面没有工作
But there is no job in the city.

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假如你们去过这些地方的话
If you have been to these places

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每一个城市边上都有很大一圈
There is a big circle on the edge of every city.

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全是棚户区
It's all shanty towns

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都是棚户区很大一圈
It's a big circle of shanty towns.

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延绵几十公里
Span dozens of kilometers

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我们在专业上有各自专门的字
We have our own special words in our major.

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你们以后看到这个字不要觉得什么意思叫应否
When you see this word in the future, don't think of it as meaning or not.

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RINFOM应否VC等是
Whether rinfo should be VC, etc.

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本来是棚户区
It was supposed to be a shanty town

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讲了一个不好听的
Said a bad one

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讲了一个好听点的名字叫非正规的音佛
Said a good listening point of the name of the non-formal sound Buddha.

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阿飞翻成中文叫非正式非正规居住区
A Fei turns into an informal residential area in Chinese

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实际上就是指棚户区
In fact, it means shanty towns.

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棚户区4万亩
40, 000 mu of shanty towns

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但是有时候不方便讲
But sometimes it is not convenient to talk about.

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就叫应否这个词
It's called whether or not this word

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就是为了这些人创造
It was created for these people

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这个区域可以看到
This area can be seen

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巴西就在这个地方
Brazil is right here

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所有这些国家快速城镇化以后
All of these countries after rapid urbanization

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发现都到了城市
Found it all in the city

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农村里面没有人
There is no one in the countryside.

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大家发现吗
Did you find out?

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最近资历发生了一个很大的地震
There has been a big earthquake in qualifications recently.

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八点几级知道的吧
What's the eight o'clock?

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死不了人
Never die

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因为整个国家的国土面积上面大部分都没有人
Because most of the country is empty.

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在地震的那个地方就是没有人
There is no one in the place where the earthquake happened.

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所有的人都集聚到一两个城市中间
All the people gathered in the middle of one or two cities.

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这个就造成了这些国家
This has caused these countries.

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我们一般把它称为拉丁美洲现象
We generally call it the Latin American phenomenon.

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我们也把它称为叫过度城镇化
We also call it excessive urbanization.

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国家的经济还没有到这个地方
The country's economy has not reached this place yet.

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但是人民已经都是全部进入了城市
But the people have all entered the city.

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进入城市没有工作岗位
Entering the city without jobs

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而且是举家出走
And the whole family ran away

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最后农村都放弃了
At last the countryside gave up.

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城镇里面人没有工作
Nobody in the town has a job.

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造成了几十平方公里的严明的非正规居住的这些斯拉
Caused by dozens of square kilometers of strict informal living in these Tesla.

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我待会还会仔细讲
I'll talk about it later

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这就叫第二大组第三大组
This is called the second group and the third group.

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我们可以看到
We can see

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在这个中间
In the middle

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两站以后才40%以下
It's only 40% after two stops

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10%到40%以下
Between 10% and 40%

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这么一所国家通过两站以后快速的提起
Such a country is raised quickly after two stops

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但是只延续了20年
But only for 20 years

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然后就走不动了
And then I couldn't walk

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城镇化已经没有动力了
Urbanization has run out of steam.

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它提不上去
It won't carry

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基本上我说像乌克兰这个里面找一条很重要的一个代表
Basically, I said, look for an important representative like Ukraine.

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到最后这一段才开始另外一股力量
It is not until this last paragraph that another force begins.

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农村的衰落造成进入的人往里面用挤进来
The decline of the countryside caused people to squeeze in.

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这是乌克兰在脱离欧洲
This is Ukraine leaving Europe.

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脱离
Disengage

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00:11:04.560 --> 00:11:08.780
苏联中间地段发生的这一段特别蹊跷
This particular section in the middle of the Soviet union

179
00:11:10.250 --> 00:11:13.080
这些国家可以看到第三种国家
These countries can see a third kind of country.

180
00:11:13.870 --> 00:11:23.160
俄罗斯波兰双哈萨克斯坦罗马尼亚保加利亚赛推
Russia, Poland, Kazakhstan, Romania, Bulgaria, Sela

181
00:11:23.590 --> 00:11:26.420
前社会主义国家
Former socialist country

182
00:11:27.170 --> 00:11:28.580
前社会主义国家
Former socialist country

183
00:11:28.720 --> 00:11:34.940
通过国家很有意识的来大规模组织城镇化
Organized urbanization on a large scale through the state's conscious effort

184
00:11:35.680 --> 00:11:38.530
工业化国家政府推进
Government promotion in industrialized countries

185
00:11:38.720 --> 00:11:41.950
这个里面有两个找到两个案例
There are two cases found in this.

186
00:11:41.950 --> 00:11:43.590
一个是日本
One is Japan

187
00:11:43.850 --> 00:11:45.030
一个是朝鲜
One is north Korea.

188
00:11:45.400 --> 00:11:47.270
也一模一样干这个事情
Do the same thing

189
00:11:47.270 --> 00:11:49.810
就是国家大规模组织城镇化
That is, the state organized urbanization on a large scale.

190
00:11:50.040 --> 00:11:52.130
把农村的孩子集中起来
Gather the children in the countryside

191
00:11:52.520 --> 00:11:54.780
像日本集中起来以后
Like Japan when it comes together

192
00:11:54.780 --> 00:11:56.860
大规模的技校培训
Large-scale technical school training

193
00:11:57.310 --> 00:11:59.590
一个村庄的孩子进入工厂
The children of a village entered the factory.

194
00:11:59.970 --> 00:12:01.790
生产日本的产品
Produce Japanese products

195
00:12:02.270 --> 00:12:07.540
美丽派大规模的农村孩子进行技工培训以后
After the beautiful school large-scale rural children had the mechanic training

196
00:12:08.010 --> 00:12:12.530
做推进整个国家的有意识的推进
Make a conscious push for the whole country

197
00:12:12.530 --> 00:12:13.640
那么这就是推进
So this is propulsion

198
00:12:13.640 --> 00:12:15.820
但是到了后面都推进不了
But I can't push it back.

199
00:12:16.910 --> 00:12:20.740
还是这个制度起先有很大的推动力
Or the system had a big push at first

200
00:12:20.740 --> 00:12:27.050
到后面城市化里面已经不能够提供那么多的就业创新岗位
To the back of urbanization, there is no way to provide so many jobs and innovation.

201
00:12:27.370 --> 00:12:32.590
最后还是就是进入一个慈善阶段
Finally, it is a stage of charity.

202
00:12:32.680 --> 00:12:36.880
只是第四组国家
Only the fourth group of countries

203
00:12:36.880 --> 00:12:46.780
我们可以看到葡萄牙菲律宾白俄罗斯莫罗罗罗哥土耳其这些准
We can see Portugal, Philippines, Belarus, mororo, turkey, these accurate.

204
00:12:46.780 --> 00:12:49.240
发展中国家都在这个里面
Developing countries are all here

205
00:12:49.240 --> 00:12:50.340
包括葡萄牙也是
Including Portugal

206
00:12:50.890 --> 00:12:52.810
这是一个最老牌的帝国主义
This is one of the oldest imperialism.

207
00:12:54.070 --> 00:12:56.510
实际上城镇化率非常弱
In fact, the susceptibility is very weak.

208
00:12:56.510 --> 00:13:03.600
可以看到葡萄牙为什么被老牌的后起的帝国主义给甩开了
We can see why Portugal has been thrown away by the old imperialist powers.

209
00:13:03.600 --> 00:13:06.830
和他城镇化肯定是有关系
It must have something to do with his urbanization

210
00:13:07.500 --> 00:13:10.760
否则他不可能在那么早的时候起步
Otherwise, he couldn't have started so early.

211
00:13:10.760 --> 00:13:13.330
到后面被一波一波被人家甩掉
To be left behind by waves

212
00:13:13.660 --> 00:13:15.440
这就是一个城镇化可以
This is a urbanization can be.

213
00:13:16.660 --> 00:13:22.720
这个里面我们可以看到我们同学们会问
In this, we can see that our classmates will ask.

214
00:13:23.560 --> 00:13:25.510
吴老师怎么还没有出现中国
Why hasn't Mr. Wu appeared in China yet?

215
00:13:27.250 --> 00:13:30.270
我就是要让大家找一条线给大家看来
I just want you to find a line for everyone to see.

216
00:13:31.910 --> 00:13:36.820
我们南海问题的最矛盾的菲律宾
The most contradictory Philippines in our south China sea issue

217
00:13:38.120 --> 00:13:47.270
菲律宾实际上可以看到这些国家起来以后后中间段起高
In fact, the Philippines can see these countries rise after the middle of the high.

218
00:13:47.270 --> 00:13:52.600
后面又是不是很快可以看到一个慢性的S跑不动
Can you see a chronic s running fast?

219
00:13:52.600 --> 00:13:53.360
是这样
Here it is

220
00:13:53.820 --> 00:13:55.190
是这么两头慢
It's so slow

221
00:13:55.190 --> 00:13:57.630
中间有一段快这么一个过程
There is a fast process in the middle.

222
00:13:58.400 --> 00:14:02.960
我们的实际上城镇化率当时还是没有超过菲律宾
Our actual rate of conversion did not exceed that of the Philippines at that time.

223
00:14:03.610 --> 00:14:05.510
我再告诉大家一个数字
Let me tell you one more number.

224
00:14:05.510 --> 00:14:06.820
大家可能都不知道
Nobody may know

225
00:14:06.820 --> 00:14:09.110
一想到菲律宾就是觉得很烂
The thought of the Philippines makes me feel bad

226
00:14:10.280 --> 00:14:14.300
几个破烂的鬼子在一条破船上站着我们的岛
Some ragged Japs are standing on our island in a broken boat.

227
00:14:14.600 --> 00:14:16.240
大部分的影响都是一样
Most of the effects are the same.

228
00:14:16.530 --> 00:14:18.680
但是你们知道吗
But you know what?

229
00:14:18.940 --> 00:14:24.030
菲律宾的国民的大学生的比例比我们高
The proportion of university students in the Philippines is higher than ours.

230
00:14:25.740 --> 00:14:29.750
我们要达到菲律宾的全国人民进大学的比例
We want to reach the proportion of people in the Philippines who go to university.

231
00:14:29.750 --> 00:14:31.810
我们还要很努力
We have to work hard

232
00:14:32.430 --> 00:14:34.770
才能够追上菲律宾
To catch up with the Philippines

233
00:14:34.870 --> 00:14:37.400
人民应该进大学的比例
Proportion of people should go to university

234
00:14:37.690 --> 00:14:38.790
我们还没达到
We haven't reached it yet.

235
00:14:39.170 --> 00:14:42.080
我们虽然大家都说大学太多了
Although we all say that there are too many universities.

236
00:14:42.390 --> 00:14:44.470
人民那么独罩在大学
The people are so alone in the university.

237
00:14:44.470 --> 00:14:47.770
不像你们那时候吴老师你们上大学的时候
Not like when you were in college, Mr. Wu.

238
00:14:47.770 --> 00:14:48.850
大学是精英教育
Universities are elite education.

239
00:14:48.850 --> 00:14:50.990
现在都变成民众教育
Now it's all about public education

240
00:14:51.190 --> 00:14:54.470
但是我们就算民族教育都还比不上一个菲律宾
But even national education is not as good as a Philippines.

241
00:14:56.330 --> 00:15:00.330
这个数字我们再过15年到20年
This number will take us another 15 to 20 years.

242
00:15:00.330 --> 00:15:01.800
假如好的话
If so

243
00:15:01.800 --> 00:15:04.990
可以追上菲律宾的这个水平
Can catch up with the Philippines at this level.

244
00:15:11.340 --> 00:15:12.510
印度尼西亚
Indonesia

245
00:15:13.440 --> 00:15:16.040
实际上中国就是属于这一种国家
In fact, China belongs to this kind of country.

246
00:15:16.510 --> 00:15:20.860
这一组国家可以看到第五组才出现了中国
This group of countries can see that the fifth group just appeared in China.

247
00:15:21.140 --> 00:15:22.770
这组国家中间
Between the group of countries

248
00:15:23.120 --> 00:15:24.130
加拿大
Canada

249
00:15:25.860 --> 00:15:32.490
印度尼西亚尼日利亚苏丹莫桑比克
Indonesia Nigeria Sudan Mozambique

250
00:15:33.150 --> 00:15:37.270
我们中国就和他们为清楚了
We in China are clear with them.

251
00:15:37.730 --> 00:15:38.470
我们在哪里
Where are we

252
00:15:38.470 --> 00:15:39.440
清楚了吧
Got it

253
00:15:40.240 --> 00:15:42.860
不要太膨胀是吧
Don't expand too much do you

254
00:15:43.150 --> 00:15:44.660
实际上很清楚
In fact, it's very clear.

255
00:15:44.660 --> 00:15:48.290
真的是我们就是和莫桑比克是邻居
It's true that we are neighbors to Mozambique.

256
00:15:48.500 --> 00:15:51.600
我们和苏丹是好朋友
We are good friends with Sudan.

257
00:15:52.600 --> 00:15:53.900
和娱乐一样
Just like entertainment

258
00:15:53.900 --> 00:15:57.490
都是在一个组里面小组里面分配小组的话
It's all in a group.

259
00:15:58.100 --> 00:16:01.090
所以习大大昨两天就在说
So Xi dada said two days ago

260
00:16:01.090 --> 00:16:03.350
我们一定要和非洲人民在一起
We must be with the African people.

261
00:16:03.350 --> 00:16:05.970
我们那一票一定是和非洲人民在一起的
Our vote must be with the African people.

262
00:16:05.970 --> 00:16:09.740
我们常驻联合国那一票是代表发展中国家的
Our permanent vote to the United nations is on behalf of the developing countries.

263
00:16:09.740 --> 00:16:11.000
你当然代表了你
Of course you represent you

264
00:16:11.000 --> 00:16:13.670
还要代表上面来毛病的这些
And on behalf of the above problems.

265
00:16:13.870 --> 00:16:14.600
是吧
Right

266
00:16:14.600 --> 00:16:15.530
看清自己
See oneself

267
00:16:15.530 --> 00:16:20.070
我觉得我们就是媒体非常多的正面的报道
I think we are a lot of positive media coverage.

268
00:16:20.210 --> 00:16:25.400
使得我们的学生学者脑子都开始混乱了
Our students and scholars are beginning to be confused.

269
00:16:25.740 --> 00:16:27.740
忘记自己到底在哪里
Forget where you are

270
00:16:28.390 --> 00:16:30.100
不要忘记这张图纸
Don't forget this drawing.

271
00:16:30.100 --> 00:16:32.100
我们所以第五组国家
We are therefore the fifth group of countries.

272
00:16:32.310 --> 00:16:34.720
我们和加纳在一起
We're with Ghana

273
00:16:34.940 --> 00:16:38.950
假如同济大学你们过完节以后
If Tongji university, after your festival

274
00:16:38.950 --> 00:16:42.010
在校园里面碰到加纳的同学
I met my classmates from Ghana on campus.

275
00:16:42.010 --> 00:16:44.190
你要说我们是兄弟
You say we're brothers

276
00:16:44.850 --> 00:16:51.190
我们是亲兄弟是我们同济大学有很多苏丹的留学生
We are brothers and we have many Sudanese students at Tongji university.

277
00:16:51.190 --> 00:16:52.240
加纳的留学生
International students in Ghana

278
00:16:52.240 --> 00:16:53.550
莫桑比克的留学生
International students from Mozambique

279
00:16:53.550 --> 00:16:54.630
你们要亲切点
You need to be kind

280
00:16:54.630 --> 00:16:56.180
你们就是和他一样
You are just like him.

281
00:16:57.140 --> 00:16:57.960
知道吧
You know what?

282
00:16:58.560 --> 00:16:59.350
亲戚
Relative

283
00:17:00.250 --> 00:17:01.030
最后一组
Last group

284
00:17:01.030 --> 00:17:04.960
当然我们中国早早离开了
Of course, we left China early.

285
00:17:04.960 --> 00:17:11.430
这一次我们后面尤其改革开放起步的比较快
This time, especially after our reform and opening up to the outside world, we started relatively fast.

286
00:17:11.670 --> 00:17:13.090
我可以告诉大家
I can tell you

287
00:17:13.090 --> 00:17:15.490
假如没有中国的改革开放
Without China's reform and opening up

288
00:17:15.740 --> 00:17:18.500
没有邓小平做的改革开放
The reform and opening up without Deng Xiaoping

289
00:17:18.500 --> 00:17:20.450
中国就在第六组
China is in group six.

290
00:17:20.450 --> 00:17:23.650
我相信中国就在第六组
I believe China is in group six.

291
00:17:23.650 --> 00:17:25.190
联第五组都跨不上
The fifth group is not up to it.

292
00:17:25.190 --> 00:17:27.480
跨不进去还属于第六组
Still in group six.

293
00:17:27.830 --> 00:17:28.930
我们在读大学
We are in college.

294
00:17:29.420 --> 00:17:31.120
我进同济大学读书
I went to Tongji university.

295
00:17:31.120 --> 00:17:33.580
1978年文革结束以后
After the end of the cultural revolution in 1978

296
00:17:33.580 --> 00:17:37.110
第一年我们这些同学进考进了我们中国的
In the first year, our classmates entered our China.

297
00:17:37.150 --> 00:17:38.120
的话就在这个地方
That would be right here

298
00:17:38.790 --> 00:17:40.080
18%
18%

299
00:17:40.300 --> 00:17:42.990
也就是说中国人中间一百个
That is to say, one hundred of the Chinese.

300
00:17:42.990 --> 00:17:44.530
中间只有18个人
There are only 18 people in the middle.

301
00:17:44.530 --> 00:17:46.640
在城市里面生活还不到一点
Life in the city is less than a little.

302
00:17:46.780 --> 00:17:47.610
17点几
What time is it seventeen

303
00:17:48.380 --> 00:17:51.160
82%的中国人都是农民
82% of the Chinese are farmers.

304
00:17:52.320 --> 00:17:53.100
就在这个地方
Right here

305
00:17:53.410 --> 00:17:56.470
这是20看到十我们做过这个水平
This is 20 see ten we have done this level.

306
00:17:56.970 --> 00:17:58.920
假如没有改革开放
If there were no reform and opening-up

307
00:17:59.100 --> 00:18:01.970
我们这样眼睛想一想这个图纸
Let's think about the drawing like this.

308
00:18:02.210 --> 00:18:07.400
我们再往前延延也延到2000年
We'll delay further until 2000.

309
00:18:07.530 --> 00:18:09.270
我们还是这个水平
We are still at this level.

310
00:18:09.550 --> 00:18:10.570
大家知道了
Everybody knows

311
00:18:11.050 --> 00:18:14.900
就是10%并不是说很快涨起来的
10% is not to say that the rise soon.

312
00:18:14.900 --> 00:18:19.580
是用了我们多少年的积累才完成了18%
It took us years of accumulation to complete 18%.

313
00:18:20.760 --> 00:18:21.680
就这条线
Just this line

314
00:18:21.680 --> 00:18:24.760
我现在给大家看50多年的情况
I will now show you the situation for more than 50 years.

315
00:18:24.760 --> 00:18:27.240
假如在延续的话就是很低
If it continues, it is very low.

316
00:18:27.460 --> 00:18:28.410
起不来
Unable to get up

317
00:18:28.410 --> 00:18:30.410
这些国家告诉大家
These countries tell you

318
00:18:30.410 --> 00:18:35.390
有的粉它的就是能量急需还很远
Some of the powder, it is the energy urgently needed, is still far away.

319
00:18:35.480 --> 00:18:37.620
假如它一旦进农村
If it had entered the countryside

320
00:18:37.780 --> 00:18:40.960
从城市从农村进入城市的话
From the city to the city from the countryside

321
00:18:41.000 --> 00:18:41.940
人一多
Man Yi duo

322
00:18:41.940 --> 00:18:43.740
整个城市马上就谈话
The whole city will talk right away

323
00:18:43.960 --> 00:18:45.540
他根本没有饭吃
He has no food at all.

324
00:18:47.020 --> 00:18:48.520
食品都不够
Not enough food

325
00:18:48.520 --> 00:18:51.170
他一定会跑到农村去
He must run to the countryside.