WEBVTT 1 00:00:13.790 --> 00:00:18.620 特别高兴在国庆节的前夜跟大家在一起 I am very happy to be with you on the eve of national day. 2 00:00:19.440 --> 00:00:23.590 今天实际上是外面在放烟火 Today is actually a fireworks display outside. 3 00:00:24.520 --> 00:00:27.040 正好房间或者是我们在这里算 Just the room or we are here to calculate. 4 00:00:27.870 --> 00:00:31.310 我专门找了这么一个主题来给大家讲 I have found such a theme to tell you. 5 00:00:31.510 --> 00:00:34.670 是我们的专业 Is our major 6 00:00:35.250 --> 00:00:38.800 我们同济大学经过这几年的研究 After years of research at Tongji university 7 00:00:38.800 --> 00:00:41.610 发现一个基本的关系 Discover a basic relationship 8 00:00:41.960 --> 00:00:44.150 那么觉得很有意思 So it's interesting 9 00:00:44.590 --> 00:00:50.300 对我们中国的所谓叫新型城镇化可以有所启示的一个很重要的内容 The so-called new urbanization in China can be a very important part of the enlightenment. 10 00:00:50.780 --> 00:01:02.480 应该说在就我寻求的我自己寻求的这些各个方面的国际上的反应 It should be said that in the context of my own search for these aspects of the international response. 11 00:01:03.170 --> 00:01:06.460 我巡查的这些资料 The information I inspected 12 00:01:07.210 --> 00:01:12.130 到今天为止都应该说这一块的发现是属于同济大学 So far, it should be said that the discovery of this piece belongs to Tongji university. 13 00:01:12.690 --> 00:01:14.910 是属于同济大学的最新的发现 Is the latest discovery belonging to Tongji university. 14 00:01:16.910 --> 00:01:23.650 我呢从全世界的城镇化的各个国家的过程给大家说起 I will tell you about the process of urbanization in every country in the world. 15 00:01:24.770 --> 00:01:33.300 实际上城镇化过程并不是说我们中国是怎么特别这件事情 In fact, the process of urbanization does not mean that we China is how special this matter. 16 00:01:33.860 --> 00:01:36.310 在发达国家整个过程中间 In the whole process of developed countries 17 00:01:36.470 --> 00:01:43.570 几乎没有一个国家能够阻碍整个的城镇化的这么一个历史性的进程 Almost no country can hinder the entire urbanization of such a historic process. 18 00:01:44.590 --> 00:01:51.240 那么我们这个小组工作的团队一直在跟踪 So the team that we work on has been following 19 00:01:51.470 --> 00:02:01.140 我们这个研究了252个国家地区以及不同的集团组织 We studied 252 countries, regions and different groups. 20 00:02:01.430 --> 00:02:02.170 都在这里面 It's all in here 21 00:02:02.800 --> 00:02:05.840 我们把各个国家全部走完以后 After we have finished all the countries. 22 00:02:06.040 --> 00:02:10.010 这里是九60年 This is ninety-six 23 00:02:10.670 --> 00:02:15.020 我出生的一开始看全世界的城镇化怎么走 When I was born, I looked at the world's urbanization. 24 00:02:15.970 --> 00:02:19.560 走到现在2012年的数字 Up to 2012 figures 25 00:02:20.220 --> 00:02:22.250 可以看到整个城镇化 You can see the whole urbanization 26 00:02:22.440 --> 00:02:24.970 这个是上面是100% This is the top 100%. 27 00:02:25.750 --> 00:02:26.700 100% 100% 28 00:02:26.700 --> 00:02:28.700 下面是0% Below is 0%. 29 00:02:28.700 --> 00:02:30.890 就是这个国家 This is the country 30 00:02:31.400 --> 00:02:40.270 0%的人是城市里面生活的国家是95%以上的人都在城市里生活 0% of people live in cities, and 95% live in cities. 31 00:02:40.520 --> 00:02:43.380 那么大家可以看到整个的流程 So you can see the whole process 32 00:02:43.580 --> 00:02:45.540 整个的发展的变化的过程 The whole process of development and change. 33 00:02:46.510 --> 00:02:47.620 我们可以看一看 We can have a look. 34 00:02:47.620 --> 00:02:50.000 在52个国家中间 Among 52 countries 35 00:02:50.000 --> 00:02:53.000 我们中国就在这么一条线上在走 We China are walking on such a line. 36 00:02:53.620 --> 00:02:58.330 可以看到大部分的国家早早超越了我们中国 We can see that most of the countries have surpassed our China early. 37 00:02:58.560 --> 00:03:02.120 在整个国家的现代化的层面 At the level of the modernization of the whole country 38 00:03:02.380 --> 00:03:08.270 在整个国家的城镇化的整个水平来说 At the entire level of the country's urbanization 39 00:03:08.440 --> 00:03:12.160 中国一直落后了世界很大一部分 China has always been a big part of the world behind. 40 00:03:12.800 --> 00:03:14.480 一直到了今天 Until today 41 00:03:14.480 --> 00:03:16.020 我们可以看 We can see 42 00:03:17.250 --> 00:03:19.910 我们达到了世界的一个平均的一个水平 We have reached an average level in the world. 43 00:03:20.260 --> 00:03:22.310 那么就在中间这一块 So it's in the middle 44 00:03:23.340 --> 00:03:25.630 假如同学们是20多岁的话 If the students are in their twenties. 45 00:03:26.050 --> 00:03:27.400 实际上可以看到 You can actually see 46 00:03:27.590 --> 00:03:30.490 也就是靠你们出生以后 After you were born 47 00:03:30.740 --> 00:03:34.360 这个时间段中国追上世界的水平 At this time, China is catching up with the world. 48 00:03:35.030 --> 00:03:36.970 是因为你们才会上市 It was because of you that you went public 49 00:03:42.210 --> 00:03:46.500 我们把各个组进行了聚类分析 We cluster each group. 50 00:03:47.580 --> 00:03:49.020 还要响一点吗 A little louder? 51 00:03:50.640 --> 00:03:52.220 后面同学听得见吗 Can you hear me at the back? 52 00:03:53.520 --> 00:03:54.260 这个事情 This thing 53 00:03:54.820 --> 00:03:56.390 我在建一遍可以吗 Can I build it again? 54 00:03:57.970 --> 00:03:58.280 好 Well 55 00:03:58.280 --> 00:04:03.490 后面不是可以了吗 Isn't the back okay 56 00:04:09.790 --> 00:04:10.820 可以了吗 Is that all right 57 00:04:10.820 --> 00:04:11.580 好 Well 58 00:04:11.580 --> 00:04:12.440 可以了吧 All right 59 00:04:12.850 --> 00:04:13.420 好 Well 60 00:04:13.610 --> 00:04:14.520 这样好了 That's all right 61 00:04:14.890 --> 00:04:15.970 可以了 All right 62 00:04:17.290 --> 00:04:22.280 我们把25652个分类以后 After we classified the 25652 63 00:04:22.280 --> 00:04:26.210 我们可以看到全世界进行聚类分析以后 We can see the world after clustering analysis. 64 00:04:26.210 --> 00:04:29.020 大概可以分成六组国家 It can be divided into six groups of countries. 65 00:04:29.650 --> 00:04:31.920 我一组组给大家看一下 Let me show you a group. 66 00:04:32.190 --> 00:04:35.260 到底假如你们不清楚的话 If you don't know 67 00:04:35.260 --> 00:04:38.100 你们可以一边看一边想 You can look and think 68 00:04:38.390 --> 00:04:41.980 我的家乡大概属于哪一个类型的 What kind of home is my hometown? 69 00:04:42.780 --> 00:04:45.620 假如把我们中国30个城市 If we take 30 cities in China. 70 00:04:45.750 --> 00:04:48.900 30个省市 30 provinces and cities 71 00:04:50.860 --> 00:04:52.500 自治区把它分类的话 If the autonomous region classifies it 72 00:04:52.500 --> 00:04:54.520 也是可以分成不同类型的 Can also be divided into different types. 73 00:04:54.520 --> 00:05:00.050 可以看到各个省也在走各个国家的不同的发展阶段的道路 It can be seen that the provinces are also taking different stages of development in different countries. 74 00:05:00.750 --> 00:05:04.590 大家想一想我们的我家乡在哪条线上 Let's think about which line our hometown is on. 75 00:05:06.090 --> 00:05:07.950 第一组国家 Group I countries 76 00:05:08.290 --> 00:05:12.400 二战以后都已经直接到了60%以上 After world war II, it has directly reached 60%. 77 00:05:12.820 --> 00:05:16.570 这些国家一直保持在高度上面的 These countries have been kept high. 78 00:05:17.670 --> 00:05:20.240 通过50年 Through fifty years 79 00:05:20.560 --> 00:05:24.270 不断的更加提升它的城镇化 It is constantly improving its urbanization. 80 00:05:26.140 --> 00:05:33.420 在过去的在200年到四季末之前还有很大提升 In the past, there has been a lot of improvement between 200 and the end of the fourth quarter. 81 00:05:33.420 --> 00:05:36.950 到后面的基本上保持在高水平状态 To the back basically stay at a high level. 82 00:05:38.230 --> 00:05:41.630 那么这个典型的就是中间的美国 So this is the typical middle America 83 00:05:41.630 --> 00:05:42.470 可以看到 You can see 84 00:05:42.640 --> 00:05:44.820 二战结束以后 After world war II 85 00:05:44.820 --> 00:05:46.850 这一次已经七接近70 This time, it's seven to seventy. 86 00:05:47.050 --> 00:05:48.670 然后一直保持70 And keep it up to 70 87 00:05:48.820 --> 00:05:50.080 一直在70 It's been at 70 88 00:05:50.860 --> 00:05:52.690 到了今天都在80度 It's all 80 degrees today. 89 00:05:53.160 --> 00:05:54.280 这么一组国家 Such a group of countries 90 00:05:54.280 --> 00:05:57.280 这里面包含了澳大利亚 It contains Australia. 91 00:05:57.540 --> 00:06:00.640 瑞典德国法国美国 Sweden, Germany, France, the United States. 92 00:06:01.300 --> 00:06:04.000 意大利西班牙比利时英国 Italy, Spain, Belgium, Britain. 93 00:06:04.000 --> 00:06:06.450 可以看到这些最发达的国家 You can see the most developed countries. 94 00:06:06.600 --> 00:06:09.920 早早的就把城镇化已经基本完成 Early urbanization has been basically completed. 95 00:06:10.410 --> 00:06:14.120 进入了成熟的城镇化的一个发展阶段 Entered a mature stage of urbanization. 96 00:06:15.140 --> 00:06:23.510 我们很多的同学都认为我们的可以有一天过上这样的日子 Many of our classmates think that we can live like this one day. 97 00:06:25.230 --> 00:06:27.910 但是可以清楚我们刚才这一条 But it is clear that we have just made this one 98 00:06:27.910 --> 00:06:30.140 我故意把中国的现象放出来了以后 I deliberately put the phenomenon of China after the release. 99 00:06:30.140 --> 00:06:33.480 可以看到我们为什么和他们差距那么大 We can see why we are so far behind them. 100 00:06:34.470 --> 00:06:39.120 实际上城镇化率是非常重要的一个指标 In fact, the conversion rate is a very important indicator. 101 00:06:39.310 --> 00:06:44.290 可以看到我们的整体的人民是多少 We can see how many people we are as a whole. 102 00:06:44.290 --> 00:06:49.330 在城市里面生活是和整个国家的发达水平及其相关 Living in the city is related to the level of development of the whole country. 103 00:06:50.480 --> 00:06:57.370 第二大是我们可以看到阿根廷智利为内刚 The second largest is that we can see argentina, Chile, for the interior. 104 00:06:57.840 --> 00:07:00.400 墨西哥哥伦比亚 Colombia, mexico 105 00:07:00.820 --> 00:07:01.530 内容 Content 106 00:07:02.100 --> 00:07:06.710 巴西都在咱们中国的跨太平洋的对面 Brazil is across the Pacific ocean from China. 107 00:07:07.400 --> 00:07:13.630 这是拉丁美洲国家组拉到美洲国家主在二战结束以后 This is the Latin American group that pulled to the Americas after the end of world war II. 108 00:07:13.630 --> 00:07:19.900 很少有超过60%的都是在30多到60之间 Rarely more than 60% are between 30 and 60. 109 00:07:21.100 --> 00:07:25.610 然后过了一个非常快速的城镇化过程 And then a very rapid urbanization process. 110 00:07:25.890 --> 00:07:28.520 一直到了八九十年代 Until the '80s and' 90s 111 00:07:29.540 --> 00:07:33.730 这个时候整个拉美高歌猛进的时候 This is when the whole of Latin America is singing 112 00:07:34.150 --> 00:07:40.790 大家知道阿根廷曾经在世界上最富裕的十个国家俱乐部中间 As you know, argentina was once among the ten richest country clubs in the world. 113 00:07:41.540 --> 00:07:44.420 曾经是世界上最富裕的十个国家之一 Once one of the ten richest countries in the world. 114 00:07:45.450 --> 00:07:48.400 非常也就在高歌猛进的时候 Very, very early in the song 115 00:07:50.110 --> 00:07:52.230 所以到了后面 So in the back 116 00:07:53.350 --> 00:07:54.430 大家会唱 Everyone can sing 117 00:07:54.750 --> 00:07:55.880 不要为我哭泣 Don't cry for me. 118 00:07:56.140 --> 00:07:57.770 东快疯 East fast mad 119 00:07:58.060 --> 00:08:05.280 一下子人已经到了85%以上的阿根廷还要高 All of a sudden, people have reached more than 85%, argentina is still high. 120 00:08:05.980 --> 00:08:07.120 85以上 Above 85 121 00:08:07.240 --> 00:08:11.820 以后突然之间发现人进城了 Then suddenly someone came into town. 122 00:08:12.100 --> 00:08:15.560 但是到城市里面没有工作 But there is no job in the city. 123 00:08:16.350 --> 00:08:19.970 假如你们去过这些地方的话 If you have been to these places 124 00:08:19.970 --> 00:08:23.070 每一个城市边上都有很大一圈 There is a big circle on the edge of every city. 125 00:08:23.720 --> 00:08:25.370 全是棚户区 It's all shanty towns 126 00:08:26.030 --> 00:08:27.710 都是棚户区很大一圈 It's a big circle of shanty towns. 127 00:08:27.900 --> 00:08:29.490 延绵几十公里 Span dozens of kilometers 128 00:08:30.440 --> 00:08:32.830 我们在专业上有各自专门的字 We have our own special words in our major. 129 00:08:32.830 --> 00:08:37.240 你们以后看到这个字不要觉得什么意思叫应否 When you see this word in the future, don't think of it as meaning or not. 130 00:08:37.410 --> 00:08:42.340 RINFOM应否VC等是 Whether rinfo should be VC, etc. 131 00:08:43.430 --> 00:08:44.850 本来是棚户区 It was supposed to be a shanty town 132 00:08:44.850 --> 00:08:46.230 讲了一个不好听的 Said a bad one 133 00:08:46.390 --> 00:08:53.280 讲了一个好听点的名字叫非正规的音佛 Said a good listening point of the name of the non-formal sound Buddha. 134 00:08:53.280 --> 00:08:58.370 阿飞翻成中文叫非正式非正规居住区 A Fei turns into an informal residential area in Chinese 135 00:08:58.570 --> 00:09:01.130 实际上就是指棚户区 In fact, it means shanty towns. 136 00:09:02.760 --> 00:09:03.900 棚户区4万亩 40, 000 mu of shanty towns 137 00:09:03.900 --> 00:09:05.720 但是有时候不方便讲 But sometimes it is not convenient to talk about. 138 00:09:05.720 --> 00:09:07.000 就叫应否这个词 It's called whether or not this word 139 00:09:07.000 --> 00:09:09.520 就是为了这些人创造 It was created for these people 140 00:09:10.020 --> 00:09:11.690 这个区域可以看到 This area can be seen 141 00:09:11.930 --> 00:09:13.060 巴西就在这个地方 Brazil is right here 142 00:09:13.060 --> 00:09:16.030 所有这些国家快速城镇化以后 All of these countries after rapid urbanization 143 00:09:16.030 --> 00:09:17.410 发现都到了城市 Found it all in the city 144 00:09:17.410 --> 00:09:19.190 农村里面没有人 There is no one in the countryside. 145 00:09:19.390 --> 00:09:20.790 大家发现吗 Did you find out? 146 00:09:21.070 --> 00:09:24.450 最近资历发生了一个很大的地震 There has been a big earthquake in qualifications recently. 147 00:09:24.710 --> 00:09:26.450 八点几级知道的吧 What's the eight o'clock? 148 00:09:27.740 --> 00:09:29.150 死不了人 Never die 149 00:09:29.840 --> 00:09:33.740 因为整个国家的国土面积上面大部分都没有人 Because most of the country is empty. 150 00:09:34.780 --> 00:09:37.830 在地震的那个地方就是没有人 There is no one in the place where the earthquake happened. 151 00:09:37.930 --> 00:09:41.110 所有的人都集聚到一两个城市中间 All the people gathered in the middle of one or two cities. 152 00:09:41.990 --> 00:09:45.670 这个就造成了这些国家 This has caused these countries. 153 00:09:45.670 --> 00:09:49.010 我们一般把它称为拉丁美洲现象 We generally call it the Latin American phenomenon. 154 00:09:49.140 --> 00:09:52.140 我们也把它称为叫过度城镇化 We also call it excessive urbanization. 155 00:09:53.670 --> 00:09:56.420 国家的经济还没有到这个地方 The country's economy has not reached this place yet. 156 00:09:56.420 --> 00:09:59.320 但是人民已经都是全部进入了城市 But the people have all entered the city. 157 00:09:59.520 --> 00:10:01.850 进入城市没有工作岗位 Entering the city without jobs 158 00:10:01.850 --> 00:10:03.740 而且是举家出走 And the whole family ran away 159 00:10:03.740 --> 00:10:05.740 最后农村都放弃了 At last the countryside gave up. 160 00:10:05.740 --> 00:10:08.520 城镇里面人没有工作 Nobody in the town has a job. 161 00:10:08.520 --> 00:10:14.730 造成了几十平方公里的严明的非正规居住的这些斯拉 Caused by dozens of square kilometers of strict informal living in these Tesla. 162 00:10:14.730 --> 00:10:16.400 我待会还会仔细讲 I'll talk about it later 163 00:10:16.600 --> 00:10:19.070 这就叫第二大组第三大组 This is called the second group and the third group. 164 00:10:19.300 --> 00:10:20.380 我们可以看到 We can see 165 00:10:20.550 --> 00:10:22.230 在这个中间 In the middle 166 00:10:22.500 --> 00:10:25.270 两站以后才40%以下 It's only 40% after two stops 167 00:10:25.930 --> 00:10:28.070 10%到40%以下 Between 10% and 40% 168 00:10:28.390 --> 00:10:32.330 这么一所国家通过两站以后快速的提起 Such a country is raised quickly after two stops 169 00:10:32.670 --> 00:10:36.590 但是只延续了20年 But only for 20 years 170 00:10:37.250 --> 00:10:38.680 然后就走不动了 And then I couldn't walk 171 00:10:39.380 --> 00:10:41.540 城镇化已经没有动力了 Urbanization has run out of steam. 172 00:10:41.540 --> 00:10:43.280 它提不上去 It won't carry 173 00:10:43.580 --> 00:10:48.990 基本上我说像乌克兰这个里面找一条很重要的一个代表 Basically, I said, look for an important representative like Ukraine. 174 00:10:48.990 --> 00:10:52.990 到最后这一段才开始另外一股力量 It is not until this last paragraph that another force begins. 175 00:10:52.990 --> 00:10:58.280 农村的衰落造成进入的人往里面用挤进来 The decline of the countryside caused people to squeeze in. 176 00:10:58.280 --> 00:11:04.160 这是乌克兰在脱离欧洲 This is Ukraine leaving Europe. 177 00:11:04.160 --> 00:11:04.460 脱离 Disengage 178 00:11:04.560 --> 00:11:08.780 苏联中间地段发生的这一段特别蹊跷 This particular section in the middle of the Soviet union 179 00:11:10.250 --> 00:11:13.080 这些国家可以看到第三种国家 These countries can see a third kind of country. 180 00:11:13.870 --> 00:11:23.160 俄罗斯波兰双哈萨克斯坦罗马尼亚保加利亚赛推 Russia, Poland, Kazakhstan, Romania, Bulgaria, Sela 181 00:11:23.590 --> 00:11:26.420 前社会主义国家 Former socialist country 182 00:11:27.170 --> 00:11:28.580 前社会主义国家 Former socialist country 183 00:11:28.720 --> 00:11:34.940 通过国家很有意识的来大规模组织城镇化 Organized urbanization on a large scale through the state's conscious effort 184 00:11:35.680 --> 00:11:38.530 工业化国家政府推进 Government promotion in industrialized countries 185 00:11:38.720 --> 00:11:41.950 这个里面有两个找到两个案例 There are two cases found in this. 186 00:11:41.950 --> 00:11:43.590 一个是日本 One is Japan 187 00:11:43.850 --> 00:11:45.030 一个是朝鲜 One is north Korea. 188 00:11:45.400 --> 00:11:47.270 也一模一样干这个事情 Do the same thing 189 00:11:47.270 --> 00:11:49.810 就是国家大规模组织城镇化 That is, the state organized urbanization on a large scale. 190 00:11:50.040 --> 00:11:52.130 把农村的孩子集中起来 Gather the children in the countryside 191 00:11:52.520 --> 00:11:54.780 像日本集中起来以后 Like Japan when it comes together 192 00:11:54.780 --> 00:11:56.860 大规模的技校培训 Large-scale technical school training 193 00:11:57.310 --> 00:11:59.590 一个村庄的孩子进入工厂 The children of a village entered the factory. 194 00:11:59.970 --> 00:12:01.790 生产日本的产品 Produce Japanese products 195 00:12:02.270 --> 00:12:07.540 美丽派大规模的农村孩子进行技工培训以后 After the beautiful school large-scale rural children had the mechanic training 196 00:12:08.010 --> 00:12:12.530 做推进整个国家的有意识的推进 Make a conscious push for the whole country 197 00:12:12.530 --> 00:12:13.640 那么这就是推进 So this is propulsion 198 00:12:13.640 --> 00:12:15.820 但是到了后面都推进不了 But I can't push it back. 199 00:12:16.910 --> 00:12:20.740 还是这个制度起先有很大的推动力 Or the system had a big push at first 200 00:12:20.740 --> 00:12:27.050 到后面城市化里面已经不能够提供那么多的就业创新岗位 To the back of urbanization, there is no way to provide so many jobs and innovation. 201 00:12:27.370 --> 00:12:32.590 最后还是就是进入一个慈善阶段 Finally, it is a stage of charity. 202 00:12:32.680 --> 00:12:36.880 只是第四组国家 Only the fourth group of countries 203 00:12:36.880 --> 00:12:46.780 我们可以看到葡萄牙菲律宾白俄罗斯莫罗罗罗哥土耳其这些准 We can see Portugal, Philippines, Belarus, mororo, turkey, these accurate. 204 00:12:46.780 --> 00:12:49.240 发展中国家都在这个里面 Developing countries are all here 205 00:12:49.240 --> 00:12:50.340 包括葡萄牙也是 Including Portugal 206 00:12:50.890 --> 00:12:52.810 这是一个最老牌的帝国主义 This is one of the oldest imperialism. 207 00:12:54.070 --> 00:12:56.510 实际上城镇化率非常弱 In fact, the susceptibility is very weak. 208 00:12:56.510 --> 00:13:03.600 可以看到葡萄牙为什么被老牌的后起的帝国主义给甩开了 We can see why Portugal has been thrown away by the old imperialist powers. 209 00:13:03.600 --> 00:13:06.830 和他城镇化肯定是有关系 It must have something to do with his urbanization 210 00:13:07.500 --> 00:13:10.760 否则他不可能在那么早的时候起步 Otherwise, he couldn't have started so early. 211 00:13:10.760 --> 00:13:13.330 到后面被一波一波被人家甩掉 To be left behind by waves 212 00:13:13.660 --> 00:13:15.440 这就是一个城镇化可以 This is a urbanization can be. 213 00:13:16.660 --> 00:13:22.720 这个里面我们可以看到我们同学们会问 In this, we can see that our classmates will ask. 214 00:13:23.560 --> 00:13:25.510 吴老师怎么还没有出现中国 Why hasn't Mr. Wu appeared in China yet? 215 00:13:27.250 --> 00:13:30.270 我就是要让大家找一条线给大家看来 I just want you to find a line for everyone to see. 216 00:13:31.910 --> 00:13:36.820 我们南海问题的最矛盾的菲律宾 The most contradictory Philippines in our south China sea issue 217 00:13:38.120 --> 00:13:47.270 菲律宾实际上可以看到这些国家起来以后后中间段起高 In fact, the Philippines can see these countries rise after the middle of the high. 218 00:13:47.270 --> 00:13:52.600 后面又是不是很快可以看到一个慢性的S跑不动 Can you see a chronic s running fast? 219 00:13:52.600 --> 00:13:53.360 是这样 Here it is 220 00:13:53.820 --> 00:13:55.190 是这么两头慢 It's so slow 221 00:13:55.190 --> 00:13:57.630 中间有一段快这么一个过程 There is a fast process in the middle. 222 00:13:58.400 --> 00:14:02.960 我们的实际上城镇化率当时还是没有超过菲律宾 Our actual rate of conversion did not exceed that of the Philippines at that time. 223 00:14:03.610 --> 00:14:05.510 我再告诉大家一个数字 Let me tell you one more number. 224 00:14:05.510 --> 00:14:06.820 大家可能都不知道 Nobody may know 225 00:14:06.820 --> 00:14:09.110 一想到菲律宾就是觉得很烂 The thought of the Philippines makes me feel bad 226 00:14:10.280 --> 00:14:14.300 几个破烂的鬼子在一条破船上站着我们的岛 Some ragged Japs are standing on our island in a broken boat. 227 00:14:14.600 --> 00:14:16.240 大部分的影响都是一样 Most of the effects are the same. 228 00:14:16.530 --> 00:14:18.680 但是你们知道吗 But you know what? 229 00:14:18.940 --> 00:14:24.030 菲律宾的国民的大学生的比例比我们高 The proportion of university students in the Philippines is higher than ours. 230 00:14:25.740 --> 00:14:29.750 我们要达到菲律宾的全国人民进大学的比例 We want to reach the proportion of people in the Philippines who go to university. 231 00:14:29.750 --> 00:14:31.810 我们还要很努力 We have to work hard 232 00:14:32.430 --> 00:14:34.770 才能够追上菲律宾 To catch up with the Philippines 233 00:14:34.870 --> 00:14:37.400 人民应该进大学的比例 Proportion of people should go to university 234 00:14:37.690 --> 00:14:38.790 我们还没达到 We haven't reached it yet. 235 00:14:39.170 --> 00:14:42.080 我们虽然大家都说大学太多了 Although we all say that there are too many universities. 236 00:14:42.390 --> 00:14:44.470 人民那么独罩在大学 The people are so alone in the university. 237 00:14:44.470 --> 00:14:47.770 不像你们那时候吴老师你们上大学的时候 Not like when you were in college, Mr. Wu. 238 00:14:47.770 --> 00:14:48.850 大学是精英教育 Universities are elite education. 239 00:14:48.850 --> 00:14:50.990 现在都变成民众教育 Now it's all about public education 240 00:14:51.190 --> 00:14:54.470 但是我们就算民族教育都还比不上一个菲律宾 But even national education is not as good as a Philippines. 241 00:14:56.330 --> 00:15:00.330 这个数字我们再过15年到20年 This number will take us another 15 to 20 years. 242 00:15:00.330 --> 00:15:01.800 假如好的话 If so 243 00:15:01.800 --> 00:15:04.990 可以追上菲律宾的这个水平 Can catch up with the Philippines at this level. 244 00:15:11.340 --> 00:15:12.510 印度尼西亚 Indonesia 245 00:15:13.440 --> 00:15:16.040 实际上中国就是属于这一种国家 In fact, China belongs to this kind of country. 246 00:15:16.510 --> 00:15:20.860 这一组国家可以看到第五组才出现了中国 This group of countries can see that the fifth group just appeared in China. 247 00:15:21.140 --> 00:15:22.770 这组国家中间 Between the group of countries 248 00:15:23.120 --> 00:15:24.130 加拿大 Canada 249 00:15:25.860 --> 00:15:32.490 印度尼西亚尼日利亚苏丹莫桑比克 Indonesia Nigeria Sudan Mozambique 250 00:15:33.150 --> 00:15:37.270 我们中国就和他们为清楚了 We in China are clear with them. 251 00:15:37.730 --> 00:15:38.470 我们在哪里 Where are we 252 00:15:38.470 --> 00:15:39.440 清楚了吧 Got it 253 00:15:40.240 --> 00:15:42.860 不要太膨胀是吧 Don't expand too much do you 254 00:15:43.150 --> 00:15:44.660 实际上很清楚 In fact, it's very clear. 255 00:15:44.660 --> 00:15:48.290 真的是我们就是和莫桑比克是邻居 It's true that we are neighbors to Mozambique. 256 00:15:48.500 --> 00:15:51.600 我们和苏丹是好朋友 We are good friends with Sudan. 257 00:15:52.600 --> 00:15:53.900 和娱乐一样 Just like entertainment 258 00:15:53.900 --> 00:15:57.490 都是在一个组里面小组里面分配小组的话 It's all in a group. 259 00:15:58.100 --> 00:16:01.090 所以习大大昨两天就在说 So Xi dada said two days ago 260 00:16:01.090 --> 00:16:03.350 我们一定要和非洲人民在一起 We must be with the African people. 261 00:16:03.350 --> 00:16:05.970 我们那一票一定是和非洲人民在一起的 Our vote must be with the African people. 262 00:16:05.970 --> 00:16:09.740 我们常驻联合国那一票是代表发展中国家的 Our permanent vote to the United nations is on behalf of the developing countries. 263 00:16:09.740 --> 00:16:11.000 你当然代表了你 Of course you represent you 264 00:16:11.000 --> 00:16:13.670 还要代表上面来毛病的这些 And on behalf of the above problems. 265 00:16:13.870 --> 00:16:14.600 是吧 Right 266 00:16:14.600 --> 00:16:15.530 看清自己 See oneself 267 00:16:15.530 --> 00:16:20.070 我觉得我们就是媒体非常多的正面的报道 I think we are a lot of positive media coverage. 268 00:16:20.210 --> 00:16:25.400 使得我们的学生学者脑子都开始混乱了 Our students and scholars are beginning to be confused. 269 00:16:25.740 --> 00:16:27.740 忘记自己到底在哪里 Forget where you are 270 00:16:28.390 --> 00:16:30.100 不要忘记这张图纸 Don't forget this drawing. 271 00:16:30.100 --> 00:16:32.100 我们所以第五组国家 We are therefore the fifth group of countries. 272 00:16:32.310 --> 00:16:34.720 我们和加纳在一起 We're with Ghana 273 00:16:34.940 --> 00:16:38.950 假如同济大学你们过完节以后 If Tongji university, after your festival 274 00:16:38.950 --> 00:16:42.010 在校园里面碰到加纳的同学 I met my classmates from Ghana on campus. 275 00:16:42.010 --> 00:16:44.190 你要说我们是兄弟 You say we're brothers 276 00:16:44.850 --> 00:16:51.190 我们是亲兄弟是我们同济大学有很多苏丹的留学生 We are brothers and we have many Sudanese students at Tongji university. 277 00:16:51.190 --> 00:16:52.240 加纳的留学生 International students in Ghana 278 00:16:52.240 --> 00:16:53.550 莫桑比克的留学生 International students from Mozambique 279 00:16:53.550 --> 00:16:54.630 你们要亲切点 You need to be kind 280 00:16:54.630 --> 00:16:56.180 你们就是和他一样 You are just like him. 281 00:16:57.140 --> 00:16:57.960 知道吧 You know what? 282 00:16:58.560 --> 00:16:59.350 亲戚 Relative 283 00:17:00.250 --> 00:17:01.030 最后一组 Last group 284 00:17:01.030 --> 00:17:04.960 当然我们中国早早离开了 Of course, we left China early. 285 00:17:04.960 --> 00:17:11.430 这一次我们后面尤其改革开放起步的比较快 This time, especially after our reform and opening up to the outside world, we started relatively fast. 286 00:17:11.670 --> 00:17:13.090 我可以告诉大家 I can tell you 287 00:17:13.090 --> 00:17:15.490 假如没有中国的改革开放 Without China's reform and opening up 288 00:17:15.740 --> 00:17:18.500 没有邓小平做的改革开放 The reform and opening up without Deng Xiaoping 289 00:17:18.500 --> 00:17:20.450 中国就在第六组 China is in group six. 290 00:17:20.450 --> 00:17:23.650 我相信中国就在第六组 I believe China is in group six. 291 00:17:23.650 --> 00:17:25.190 联第五组都跨不上 The fifth group is not up to it. 292 00:17:25.190 --> 00:17:27.480 跨不进去还属于第六组 Still in group six. 293 00:17:27.830 --> 00:17:28.930 我们在读大学 We are in college. 294 00:17:29.420 --> 00:17:31.120 我进同济大学读书 I went to Tongji university. 295 00:17:31.120 --> 00:17:33.580 1978年文革结束以后 After the end of the cultural revolution in 1978 296 00:17:33.580 --> 00:17:37.110 第一年我们这些同学进考进了我们中国的 In the first year, our classmates entered our China. 297 00:17:37.150 --> 00:17:38.120 的话就在这个地方 That would be right here 298 00:17:38.790 --> 00:17:40.080 18% 18% 299 00:17:40.300 --> 00:17:42.990 也就是说中国人中间一百个 That is to say, one hundred of the Chinese. 300 00:17:42.990 --> 00:17:44.530 中间只有18个人 There are only 18 people in the middle. 301 00:17:44.530 --> 00:17:46.640 在城市里面生活还不到一点 Life in the city is less than a little. 302 00:17:46.780 --> 00:17:47.610 17点几 What time is it seventeen 303 00:17:48.380 --> 00:17:51.160 82%的中国人都是农民 82% of the Chinese are farmers. 304 00:17:52.320 --> 00:17:53.100 就在这个地方 Right here 305 00:17:53.410 --> 00:17:56.470 这是20看到十我们做过这个水平 This is 20 see ten we have done this level. 306 00:17:56.970 --> 00:17:58.920 假如没有改革开放 If there were no reform and opening-up 307 00:17:59.100 --> 00:18:01.970 我们这样眼睛想一想这个图纸 Let's think about the drawing like this. 308 00:18:02.210 --> 00:18:07.400 我们再往前延延也延到2000年 We'll delay further until 2000. 309 00:18:07.530 --> 00:18:09.270 我们还是这个水平 We are still at this level. 310 00:18:09.550 --> 00:18:10.570 大家知道了 Everybody knows 311 00:18:11.050 --> 00:18:14.900 就是10%并不是说很快涨起来的 10% is not to say that the rise soon. 312 00:18:14.900 --> 00:18:19.580 是用了我们多少年的积累才完成了18% It took us years of accumulation to complete 18%. 313 00:18:20.760 --> 00:18:21.680 就这条线 Just this line 314 00:18:21.680 --> 00:18:24.760 我现在给大家看50多年的情况 I will now show you the situation for more than 50 years. 315 00:18:24.760 --> 00:18:27.240 假如在延续的话就是很低 If it continues, it is very low. 316 00:18:27.460 --> 00:18:28.410 起不来 Unable to get up 317 00:18:28.410 --> 00:18:30.410 这些国家告诉大家 These countries tell you 318 00:18:30.410 --> 00:18:35.390 有的粉它的就是能量急需还很远 Some of the powder, it is the energy urgently needed, is still far away. 319 00:18:35.480 --> 00:18:37.620 假如它一旦进农村 If it had entered the countryside 320 00:18:37.780 --> 00:18:40.960 从城市从农村进入城市的话 From the city to the city from the countryside 321 00:18:41.000 --> 00:18:41.940 人一多 Man Yi duo 322 00:18:41.940 --> 00:18:43.740 整个城市马上就谈话 The whole city will talk right away 323 00:18:43.960 --> 00:18:45.540 他根本没有饭吃 He has no food at all. 324 00:18:47.020 --> 00:18:48.520 食品都不够 Not enough food 325 00:18:48.520 --> 00:18:51.170 他一定会跑到农村去 He must run to the countryside.