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我们还做过一个分析
We did an analysis

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就是看上海郊区的一个人口分布
Just look at the population distribution in the suburbs of Shanghai.

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特别是外来人口的分布
In particular, the distribution of foreign populations

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张PPT里面就有一个数据
There is a data in Zhang PPT.

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因为上海刚才我们讲大概是有接近900万的外来人口
As we said just now in Shanghai, there are about 9 million foreign people.

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外来人口里面我们做过一个统计
We did a census of the foreign population

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大概是有43.7%的人口是居住在农村居民点里
About 43.7% of the population live in rural settlements.

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他没有住在新城
He doesn't live in new town.

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大家我想能够理解是吧
I think we can understand, right?

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因为他们这些农民工是到上海来就业了
Because they are the migrant workers to Shanghai to find employment.

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但是这些就业它岗位是在那些工业区里面
But these jobs, their jobs are in those industrial areas.

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这些工业区本身就不再形成
The industrial zones themselves are no longer formed.

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而新城里面开发的房地产
And the real estate development inside the new town.

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这些农民工又不可能去买的是吧
It's impossible for these migrant workers to buy it, isn't it?

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所以他只能选择一个最低成本的这种居住的一种方式
So he can only choose a minimum cost of this kind of living one way.

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所以就居住在农村居民点里面
So they live in rural settlements.

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所以上海特别在中心城周边很多的传统的那种村庄里面
So Shanghai is especially in the traditional kind of villages around the central city.

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其实外来人口是远远超过本地人口的
In fact, the foreign population far exceeds the local population.

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又住了大量的外来人口
A large number of foreign people live.

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所以我们说上海虽然按照统计意义上
So we say Shanghai, although in the sense of statistics.

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你按照上海公布的数字或者是国家公布的上海城镇化率很高
You according to the figures published in Shanghai, or the state announced the high rate of urbanization in Shanghai.

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可能达到了80%
It may have reached 80%.

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接近90了
It's close to 90

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其实背后结构还会调整的
In fact, the structure behind it will be adjusted.

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一个就是这些农民工他并没有本地化
One is that these migrant workers, he did not localization.

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就我们说的市民化
As far as we're concerned, we're talking about the privatization of the city.

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是吧
Right

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视频化
Video frequency

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而且可能也面临着一个
And may also face a

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因为上海的产业结构要调整
Because the industrial structure of Shanghai has to be adjusted.

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可能一些低附加值的制造业产出效率很低的制造业可能慢慢的会退出
Perhaps some low value-added manufacturing output is very low, the manufacturing industry may slowly withdraw.

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那么就这部分的就业的需求可能会下降
Then the demand for this part of the job may fall.

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那么会不会影响到这些农民工在上海的就业
Will it affect the employment of these migrant workers in Shanghai?

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如果一旦失去了就业机会
If you lose a job

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有可能就流出了
It might just run out

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就会回流了
It will backflow

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所以上海面临着一个在城镇化的一个过程
So Shanghai is facing a process of urbanization.

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在整个增长里面
Throughout the growth

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这张图也看到了红颜色就是外来人口新增的人口最密集的地带
This picture also shows that the red color is the most densely populated area of the new population.

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但我们这张图在评估我们现在在强调公共服务是吧
But our picture is assessing, and we are now emphasizing public service, right?

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一个城市包括城乡
A city includes both urban and rural areas.

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我们的基本公共服务教育医疗这些设施卫生这样的设施要均衡均等
Our basic public services, education, health care, these facilities should be balanced and equal.

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服务均等化
Equalization of services

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这是我们评估出来的一个结果
This is a result of our assessment.

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就是这种红颜色的地区其实是公共服务配置最低的地
This is the red color of the region is in fact the lowest allocation of public services.

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也看到了就是一方面这个地区在大量的集聚人口
On the one hand, this region is a large population gathering.

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而另外一方面我们的很多的公共服务其实是没有跟上去的
On the other hand, many of our public services have not kept up.

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没有跟上去
Not following up

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然后这是我们其他的老师做的一些用大数据手机数据来做的分析
Then this is some analysis done by other teachers using big data's cell phone data.

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这两张图有所差异是吧
The two pictures are different, aren't they?

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他主要是研究了他们的认识
He mainly studied their knowledge.

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出行选择了两个时间段
Two time periods are chosen for the trip.

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第一个时间段
First time period

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这张图是周六
This picture is on Saturday.

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周六大家会去哪里
Where will everyone go on Saturday?

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周六其实就是我们说是叫ofA日常通行
Saturday is actually what we call ofa everyday

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比如我们说周六会去趟五角场
For example, we said we would go to the racetrack on Saturday.

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然后可也可能会去趟朱家角
And then maybe go to Zhujiajiao

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就是这样的一种出行
It's such a trip.

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这里没有大量的出勤的发生在这个地区
There's not a lot of attendance here in this area

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就说明这个地区是缺少很多的能够支撑这个地区非常通行的这样的
This shows that the region is a lack of a lot of support to the region is very popular.

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一些功能的
Functional

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而这张图是什么呢
And what is this picture?

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这张图就是在周二选择了一天
This picture was chosen on Tuesday.

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周二
Tuesday

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那么这个时间段里面就是上班时间
So this is the time for work.

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工作日在这个地方又是出行发生量最大
Working days in this place is the largest number of trips.

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就是这里缺就业岗位
It is here that there are no jobs.

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既缺生活服务
Lack of living services

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也缺就业岗位
Also short of jobs

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所以边缘地区是很突出的
So the marginal areas are very prominent

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这张图就是我们看到轨道交通也见了是吧
This picture is that we can see the rail transit, right?

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在跌到这张图上面来看
Look at it on the top of this picture

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我们再来算轨道交通它的覆盖的一个水平
Let's calculate the level of its coverage in rail transit.

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整个评估下来就是在上海
The whole assessment was made in Shanghai.

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其实就是在这个圈层里面
In fact, it is in this circle.

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轨道交通网的覆盖水平是远远的低于中心城的
The coverage level of the rail transit network is far lower than that of the central city.

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这样大家去看一下地图就知道
So you can look at the map and see.

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就上海的轨道网基本上4号线一个还出了4号线
Shanghai's rail network is basically a line 4, also out of line 4.

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就是放射放射状
It's radiation

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那么大量的人口都集聚在4号线范围以外去实施
Then a large number of people are gathered outside the line 4 to implement.

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所以只有放射线
So only radiation

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那它的覆盖水平肯定概率
Then its coverage level is a positive probability.

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那么过去我刚才也谈到了
So I talked about it earlier

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就是叫19661966
It's called 19661966.

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那么现在来看
So let's look at it now

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因为过去当时提出来的时候的空间格局是这样的
Because in the past, when the proposed space pattern is like this.

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经历了这么一个十多年的发展
Have experienced such a development for more than ten years.

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整个格局在发生很大的变化
The whole pattern is changing a lot.

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有几个方面
There are several aspects

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一个方面比如我们说过去谈的1966
One aspect, like the one we talked about in the past, 1966.

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它还是有一定的行政化的导向
It still has certain administrative orientation.

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比如一个区县有一个新城
For example, a district county has a new city.

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然后当时提的每个新城是30万人
Then each of the new towns mentioned at that time was 300, 000 people.

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后来发现这30万人太均值了
It turned out that the 300,000 people were too mean.

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有的应该大一点
Yes, it should be a little bigger.

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所以嘉定就变成了一就目标变成100万要大一点
So Jiading becomes a target, a million is bigger.

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再来看这张图
Let's look at this picture again.

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其实大家如果去在上海周边去了解一下的话
In fact, if you go around Shanghai to get to know about it.

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就知道其实这些新城因为它的区位不一样
I know that in fact, these new towns because of its location is not the same.

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区位不一样
Different location

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其实这种对他们影响更大
In fact, this has a greater impact on them.

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比如像宝山几乎就跟中心城连在一起了
For example, Baoshan is almost connected to the central city.

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包括闵行
Including min hang

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某种意义上它已经不是一个新成
In a sense, it is not a new success.

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因为我们说心诚锤从最早提出的这个概念来讲
Because we say that the hammer from the earliest concept of speaking.

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它是强调相对具有相对的独立性的
It emphasizes relative independence.

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如果你按照过去提的这种新城
If you follow the new city mentioned in the past

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你说金山金山奉贤包括崇明
You said golden hill, golden hill, Fengxian, including Chongming

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新城这种概念还是可以成立的
The concept of new town can still be established.

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是吧
Right

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但是到了中心城周边的这些地区
But to these areas around central city

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其实新城已经不是过去所提的概念了
In fact, the new city is not the concept of the past.

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所以过去提的1966肯定是出现一种差异化
So in the past, there must have been a differentiation in 1966.

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需要有差异化的指导他们发展的一个策略
A strategy that requires differentiation to guide their development.

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然后那么我们的轨道交通刚才讲建设很快
Then, then, our rail transit just said that the construction is very fast.

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但是跟东京做一个对比
But make a comparison with Tokyo

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就会看到我们的覆盖水平其实是远远低于东京的
We will see that our coverage level is far below that of Tokyo.

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低于东京的
Lower than Tokyo

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那么我们现在主要的轨道交通网的覆盖主要还是在中心城内
So now our main rail network is mainly in the center of the city.

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中心城内
Central city

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而现在的大量的人口集聚
And now there's a huge population concentration

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其实已经原开始超出了中心城区了
In fact, it has already begun to go beyond the center of the city.

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是吧
Right

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但我们现在的整个支撑整个上海发展
But our entire support for the development of the whole of Shanghai.

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其实除了中心城
In fact, in addition to the center city.

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其实主要还是靠高速公路的
In fact, mainly by the highway.

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所以这种格局对接下来上海的发展肯定是有很大的挑战
Therefore, this pattern of the next development of Shanghai is certainly a great challenge.

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就是轨道网的的建设
Is the construction of the rail network.

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怎么样的支撑未来的上海
How to support the future of Shanghai?

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大都市地区的发展可能还有很长的道路要走
There may be a long way to go for the development of metropolitan areas.

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道路要走
The way to go

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再有一个就是刚才说到的
One more is what I just said.

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我们说出现的一些
We say there are some

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比如说中心城的疏解
For example, the solution of the center city.

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原来提的目标是没有实现的
The original goal was not achieved.

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没有实现
Unrealized

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这一点我们也要给大家讲一下
We also want to talk about this point.

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就是说值得解释一下
It is worth explaining.

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就是说为什么有城市规划
That is why there is urban planning.

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城市规划和市场的规律有什么关系
What is the relationship between urban planning and the law of the market?

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我就举一个例子
Let me give you an example.

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比如我们说过去大家说发展新城
For example, we said that in the past, we said that the development of new towns.

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发展新城
Develop new town

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按市场经济规律
According to the law of market economy

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其实这些新城是很难发展的
In fact, these new cities are very difficult to develop.

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国际上其实很多国家的这些特大城市的经验也表明了
In fact, the experience of these megacities in many countries shows that.

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你让你一个城市特别这种特大城市自然的自发的去发展的话
You let your city in particular, this kind of big city naturally spontaneous to the development of words.

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它是形成不了形成的
It can't form.

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它只会是在周边几句
It will only be a few sentences around

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因为这个地区成本最高
Because this area has the highest cost

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而成本最低
And the lowest cost

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发展成本最低就业机会
Development cost minimum employment opportunities

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包括公共服务的配套
Including supporting public services

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它都可以直接依托中心城区
It can rely directly on the central city.

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而新城发展它是要跳出去跳出去的
The new town is going to jump out.

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所以我们说最早的规划的产生
So we say that the earliest planning came into being.

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城市规划的产生
The emergence of urban planning

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它其实是某种意义上它是叫基本出发点
It's actually in a sense, it's called the basic starting point.

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他是要去改变就是市场实现不了的东西
He is going to change something that the market cannot achieve.

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更直接的其实是要解决市场的失效问题
What is more direct is to solve the problem of market failure.

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失效的问题
Failure problem

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比如我们说现在大家认同的规划
For example, we say that now everyone agrees on the planning.

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现代的城市规划的起源是英国颁布了公共卫生法
The origin of modern urban planning is the public health law enacted in Britain.

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因为你城市在发展的时候出现了环境问题
Because your city is developing when there is an environmental problem.

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市场是解决不了的
The market can't be solved.

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所以一定要靠公共的产品的供给
Therefore, we must rely on the supply of public products.

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公共的服务来改变
Public services to change

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相对于新场其实也是这样
The same is true of the new field.

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它建立在是一种更加理想的一种发展模式
It is based on a more ideal development model.

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它要改变城市的蔓延
It will change the spread of the city.

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这样的一种现状
Such a state of affairs

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中心城过度的集聚
Excessive concentration of central city

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然后希望他去发展新城
Then I hope he will go to develop the new town.

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所以我们反过头来讲
So we're going to go in the opposite direction

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并不是说规定规划制定了这样一个目标的问题
This is not to say that planning sets such a goal.

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对不对的问题
Right or wrong problem

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而是说我们制定了目标之后
It means that after we set our goals

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其实是要研究市场规律的
In fact, it is necessary to study the law of the market.

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市场规律
Market law

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你可以利用这样的规律去促进新城的发展
You can use this law to promote the development of the new city.

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大家都知道为什么你有一个高质量的一个基础教育
Everyone knows why you have a high quality of a basic education.

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比如一个非常好的高中
For example, a very good high school.

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他边上人就愿意去了
He was willing to go.

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是吧
Right

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房地产就会很贵
Real estate will be very expensive.

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这其实就是因为你这里的公共服务品质高
This is because you have a high quality of public service here.

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所以就会把大家吸引过去
So it's going to draw people in

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那么如果有这样的一些这个思维的话
Well, if there are some such thoughts,

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那么上海其实目前来讲
So Shanghai is actually speaking at the moment

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公共服务
Public service

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质量高的地区其实还是集中在中心城区
In fact, high-quality areas or concentrated in the central urban areas.

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比如上海的三甲医院几乎都在中心城区
For example, Shanghai's top three hospitals are almost all in the center of the city.

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外面没有的
There's nothing out there

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然后也包括上海的那些最好的学校
Then also include the best schools in Shanghai.

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也在中心城区里
In the center of the city

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所以这一轮的上海的规划可能就不仅仅是一个目标问题了
So this round of Shanghai planning may be more than just a goal of the problem.

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不仅仅说上海未来的发展应该怎么样
Not only that Shanghai's future development should be what?

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可能还要更多的去研究市场规律
Maybe more research on the law of the market.

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然后怎么样的借助好市场的规律来制定相应的引导的政策
Then what kind of good use of the law of the market to formulate the corresponding guiding policies.

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或者是策略
Or strategy

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另外还有一个就是我们上海在上一版规划里面
In addition, there is one in our Shanghai version of the planning inside.

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这里画出来的这些地区
These areas are drawn here

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其实都是生态地区
In fact, all are ecological areas.

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红颜色就是建设用地
The red color is the land for construction.

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所以跟原来的规划设想的差也是很大的
Therefore, it is also very different from the original plan.

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我们讲到这里休息一下
Let's stop here and have a rest.

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所以刚才就谈到了
So we talked about it just now

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就是说为什么这些生态地区控制不住
That is why these ecological areas cannot be controlled.

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其实跟我们现在发展模式有关
In fact, it has something to do with our current development model.

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就没有差异化
There is no differentiation

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你这里是需要生态保护
You need ecological protection here.

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但是你又没有给他相应的补偿
But you did not give him the corresponding compensation.

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那么大家的发展权是一样的
So the right to development is the same.

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所以你即使做了规划
So even if you make a plan

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实际上操作起来是没办法去实施的
In fact, there is no way to operate it.

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所以一定是这种规划一定是要研究空间的差异化的一个政策的导向
Therefore, this must be the planning must be to study the spatial differentiation of a policy direction.

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那么从接下来的发展来看
So from the next development

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大概有四个方面都值得关注
There are probably four areas that deserve attention.

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一个就是上海的全球城市战略其实是跟国家战略要在一起
One is that Shanghai's global urban strategy is in fact with the national strategy.

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同时要看到这是上海新一轮的处在的是一个技术创新
At the same time, we should see that this is a new round of Shanghai, is a technological innovation.

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周期变化会非常的深入的
The cycle is going to be very deep

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而且具有很强的不确定性
And there is a lot of uncertainty.

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另外就是关注的环境
Another is the environment of concern.

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资源的问题
Resource problem

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还有就是上海面临的一个社会转型
There is also a social transformation facing Shanghai.

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比如说老龄化问题等等
For example, the problem of aging and so on.